Holy moly, what a day of darts on Thursday. The 180-fest between Smith and Dobey, Gerwyn Price ousted in a shocker and Cool Hand Luke nearly upset by a certain Pokemon.
And look at Friday's slate! It doesn't end!
Friday offers the final four Round 3 matches before we move into the fourth round, which begins with a bang tonight — Michael van Gerwen vs. Stephen Bunting and Michael Smith vs. Chris Dobey. Both lower seeds have been playing like absolute madmen thus far, with four 100-plus averages between the two of them in their four respective matches.
Will the insanity continue today? Here's how I'm betting this cracking slate:
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Damon Heta (10) vs. Berry van Peer
- bet365 match odds: -334/+250
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -308/+308
- 2023 average: 94.35, 89.81
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.50, 88.87
- Most 180 odds: Heta -250, Tie +700, van Peer +275
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.28, 0.20
The day kicks off with the "stinker" of the slate, a match that features top Aussie Damon Heta and a player who everyone is surprised to see this far in Berry van Peer.
The latter stunned young Josh Rock last round by not only beating him, but doing so fairly routinely. Oddsmakers don't expect that to happen again, though, as Heta is rightfully a sizable favorite. No knock on van Peer, but we don't know if he can keep up with a top player in a longer form game like this. Rock can be a top player, but he was putrid against van Peer.
I don't see any true plays here, but I will call out that Heta is just -250 at Caesars and van Peer can be had between +250 and +260 at a few books. In other words, a couple of arbitrage and near-arbitrage opportunities if the line moves more.
Pick: Pass
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Jonny Clayton (9) vs. Krzysztof Ratajski (24)
- bet365 match odds: -125/+100
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +149/-149
- 2023 average: 96.08, 94.94
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.51, 94.11
- Most 180 odds: Clayton -125, Tie +550, Ratajski +150
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.21, 0.17
The second match features a couple of big names facing off, though this could have the potential to be scrappier than their pedigree suggests. Jonny Clayton is the #9 seed, but as of late he's played nowhere near well enough to merit that. Krzysztof Ratajski's play hasn't been in top form, either, and if we see both players faffing about at the same time this match could get ugly quick!
Given Clayton's recent struggles, the statisticians at DartsOrakel don't feel he should be favored and I will agree with them here. Not all of their projections look spot on and some leave me slightly perplexed, but I like their direction here.
Some of the value has been eaten up since the lines opened, as Ratajski was around +115 at most shops and is mostly even at this point, but I still feel the Polish Eagle has value up to around a pick 'em.
Pick: Ratajski +105 (DraftKings)
Jim Williams vs. Raymond van Barneveld (29)
- bet365 match odds: -110/-110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -242/+242
- 2023 average: 95.13, 93.40
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.61, 93.50
- Most 180 odds: Williams +120, Tie +600, van Barneveld +110
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.24, 0.24
Speaking of the statisticians at DartsOrakel, the final match of the day features the apple of their eye, Jim Williams. Although the oddsmakers opened the Williams vs. Peter Wright match with the former at +265, DartsOrakel had Williams as the slight favorite and there was some serious odds movement in Williams' favor before the match began. He won 3-0, ho hum.
With that said, Williams hasn't exactly won over the respect of the oddsmakers, as he opened up as a Chihuahua-sized underdog against Raymond van Barneveld. The market has moved it to a pick 'em, but the numbers still think the line is wayyy off.
Barney was very good in his tourney debut, averaging nearly 100 in a 3-1 win over Radek Szaganski, but Barney is pretty hit and miss these days and I wouldn't expect that to continue. It's Williams who has been the better player and the player who should be favored.
Pick: Williams -110 (FanDuel)
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Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Boris Krcmar vs. Gary Anderson (21)
- bet365 match odds: +400/-600
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +302/-302
- 2023 average: 91.97, 98.71
- Avg. since Sep 1: 91.79, 99.68
- Most 180 odds: Krcmar +400, Tie +750, Anderson -350
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.17, 0.33
The Flying Scotsman, Gary Anderson, was certainly happy to see Gerwyn Price lose on Thursday, as that seriously opens up his route in the bracket. First, he will need to beat the big Croatian Boris Krcmar.
Krcmar beat an injured Dirk van Duijvenbode in Round 2, but it was more of Krcmar beating van Duijvenbode than the injury. He averaged nearly 97, well above his seasonal numbers, and took out chances when he had them.
An in-form Gary Anderson is a different beast, though, and I don't feel Krcmar can repeat his performance. This match is another great example of darts market inefficiencies, as Caesars is offering Anderson -1.5 sets at -225, whereas others are as high as -350 — presenting potential arbitrage scenarios.
I will pass on that and just take Anderson at that price, as it's just too good to pass up. Anderson's been the world's best player in terms of the average this year and Krcmar is a middling player at best.
Pick: Anderson -1.5 -225 (Caesars)
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Michael van Gerwen (2) vs. Stephen Bunting (18)
- bet365 match odds: -163/+130
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -161/+161
- 2023 average: 98.36, 95.93
- Avg. since Sep 1: 98.92, 97.51
- Most 180 odds: van Gerwen +162, Tie +750, Bunting -150
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.28, 0.30
Oh boy, we have a cracker on our hands. Mighty Michael van Gerwen, one of the top seeds, against "The Bullet", Stephen Bunting, who has been playing like a top seed lately despite the #18 next to his name.
The Bullet's first match was statistically the best of the tournament so far, north of 107. His second against Florian Hempel on Thursday wasn't quite as gobsmacking, but still 100+.
MvG has averaged just about 100 over the tournament, too, and he'd probably be offended to be sub -200 against anyone quite frankly. There's not a ton of difference between their recent numbers, but there is a ton of difference in one category — the Michael van Gerwen category. van Gerwen is van Gerwen, Bunting is not van Gerwen. Ya catch my drift?
MvG is the best player in modern history with oodles of titles and big game experience. A fourth round clash with an in-form Stephen Bunting isn't going to scare him too much, but the opposite could very well be said for Bunting.
I'm going to take this as an opportunity to "buy low" on van Gerwen and back the Green Machine to come through in the clutch.
Pick: van Gerwen -163 (bet365)
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Michael Smith (1) vs. Chris Dobey (17)
- bet365 match odds: -138/+110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +116/-116
- 2023 average: 95.82, 96.01
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.29, 96.21
- Most 180 odds: Smith +150, Tie +750, Dobey -125
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.31
The last match of the night could very well be the Grand Finale. In one corner, we have the reigning World Champion in Michael Smith. In the other, we have a player who just averaged 102 and hit 14 180s in his win over Ross Smith on Thursday. Dobey has looked elite in both matches this tournament and it's coming off a year in which he's proven he should at least be in that conversation.
If he beats the Bully Boy, he instantly becomes among the top handful of players to win this tournament. I am going to bet on him to do so, too.
"Hollywood" Dobey has opened as the small underdog, but I'm not going to be surprised at all if he ends up a pick 'em or even the favorite. This should be very close either way so anything at plus-money is good in my eye.
If you are looking to bet on the champ, we have a rare opportunity to take him as the underdog for most 180s. Everyone just saw Dobey pile in the maximums which I think is skewing the odds a little bit, perhaps presenting value on the world number one.
Pick: Dobey +110 (DraftKings)
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