The final weekend day of darts of the year is sadly here. The fourth round began on Friday night and the reigning world champ, Michael Smith, was ousted in a 4-0 route at the hands of Chris Dobey. Meanwhile, Michael van Gerwen threw hot hand Stephen Bunting to the curb in a 4-0 domination of his own.
Saturday brings us two final slates of fourth-round action at the PDC World Darts Championship.
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Scott Williams vs. Damon Heta (10)
- bet365 match odds: +175/-225
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +363/-363
- 2023 average: 91.39, 94.35
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.36, 94.50
- Most 180 odds: Williams +125, Tie +700, Heta -120
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.26, 0.28
Damon Heta kicks us off for a second consecutive day, this time against the troublesome and flamboyant Scott Williams.
Williams had a big R2 upset over #7 Danny Noppert and followed that up with a last set deciding win over #26 Martin Schindler in an affair that showed a lot of character.
Williams doesn't play a ton of big events at this point of his career, but I think he's shown us that he can easily overperform against his seasonal averages in these big matches.
If you've been following along with these daily articles, you know we've been on Williams for each of his past two upsets and I'm going back to the well for a third consecutive match. Heta is a strong player, but he's susceptible and can have really ugly stretches of play. Berry van Peer almost took out Heta on Friday and in my eyes, Williams is a much more capable foe. Meanwhile, the line isn't all that different than the Heta/van Peer affair.
If you don't think he can cross the finish line, I also think Williams on the spread at either +1.5 or +2.5 is enticing.
Pick: Williams +190 (BetMGM)
Daryl Gurney (27) vs. Dave Chisnall (11)
- bet365 match odds: +130/-163
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +153/-153
- 2023 average: 95.06, 96.08
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.45, 95.91
- Most 180 odds: Gurney +250, Tie +800, Chisnall -225
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.24, 0.34
"Superchin" Daryl Gurney didn't play as great against Ricky Evans as he did against Steve Beaton, but still did enough to win 4-2. Dave "Chizzy" Chisnall, on the other hand, stepped things up in R3 against Gabriel Clemens and took care of business 4-1.
I'm not sure there is much value in this matchup, but I may bet Gurney to have the most 180s, which is as high as +280 at FanDuel. Gurney proved me wrong in his last match and is up to 15 180s over 45 legs thus far in the tournament.
If he's able to keep up that pace, he'll certainly be in the running against Chizzy — assuming Chizzy doesn't get in one of his grooves. At nearly 3-1, though, I think it's worth consideration.
Pick: Lean Gurney Most 180s +280 (FanDuel)
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Rob Cross (8) vs. Jonny Clayton (9)
- bet365 match odds: -225/+175
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -346/+346
- 2023 average: 96.26, 95.99
- Avg. since Sep 1: 97.37, 93.25
- Most 180 odds: Cross -138, Tie +650, Clayton +162
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.23, 0.21
This is what the darts is all about. Rob Cross, a former electrician, and Jonny Clayton, a former plasterer, duking it out for a spot at the quarterfinals of the World Championships.
"Voltage" is by far the more in-form player, while "The Ferret" has seen his numbers slide in recent months. Even at Ally Pally, he's had to scrap his way to a couple of not-so-pretty victories and has averaged just about 90 in the process.
Cross's first match was scrappy, but he turned it on against Jeffrey De Graaf in R3.
Cross opened up in the -190 range, but has moved up to -225 at a lot of books. I liked him to begin with at that price, but Caesars is straggling along and has Cross at just -175.
Get it while you can!
Assuming the line moves at some point, I think Cross is worth a whack up to -225.
Pick: Cross -175 (Caesars)
Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Brendan Dolan (28) vs. Gary Anderson
- bet365 match odds: +333/-450
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +554/-554
- 2023 average: 92.48, 92.04/98.71
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.72, 91.97/99.68
- Most 180 odds: Dolan +1000, Tie +900, Anderson -1000
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.15, 0.17/0.33
The Flying Scotsman, Gary Anderson, certainly breathed a sigh of relief when Brendan Dolan upset Gerwyn Price. On one hand, Dolan proved he can beat an elite player, which I'm sure Anderson will respect. On the other hand, Anderson evaded one of the tourney favorites and probably has a ~30% better chance of making the quarterfinals.
Dolan probably deserves some more respect from the oddsmakers (and myself) based on his play so far in this tournament. I faded him last match and he made me look stupid, but I'm doing it again.
I'll be rolling back the same play on Anderson that I took in his last match against Boris Krcmar, which is -1.5 with a fair amount of juice. The standard spread with Anderson being this big of a favorite is 2.5, but despite paying a steep price, getting that extra set cushion makes me feel soooo much more comfortable. Anderson winning 4-0 or 4-1 wouldn't surprise me one bit, but I have my doubts about Dolan pulling another great performance out of his hat.
Pick: Anderson -1.5 -225 (DraftKings)
Raymond van Barneveld vs. Luke Littler
- bet365 match odds: +175/-225
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +333/-333
- 2023 average: 93.49, 92.40
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.76, 92.13
- Most 180 odds: van Barneveld +350, Tie +800, Littler -334
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.24, 0.31
The legend vs. the teenager. Raymond van Barneveld won this tournament 20 days before Luke Littler was born back in 2007, but it's the kid who opened at -200 and has moved to -225.
Littler has wowed so far in his debut at the Worlds and has a chance to continue wowing against one of the less daunting players remaining at this stage. Barney is a legend, but he's definitely beatable.
One issue with Littler is that his matches haven't been available at many sportsbooks throughout the tournament. For example, instead of having about six sportsbooks to bet on darts and shop for the best line, I have just one that I can use to bet on the Littler match.
I'm already torn as I feel the pressure might start getting to Littler more here than in the first few matches. I lean toward fading Littler in some capacity — I took under 97.5 average last match and think something like that would be a fair play again — but I'll hold off for now unless some more options open up for me to find value.
Pick: Pass
Luke Humphries (3) vs. Joe Cullen (14)
- bet365 match odds: -275/+220
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -840/+840
- 2023 average: 98.38, 94.59
- Avg. since Sep 1: 99.34, 93.33
- Most 180 odds: Humphries -138, Tie +750, Cullen +125
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.33, 0.32
The finale pits pre-tourney favorite Luke Humphries up against "The Rockstar", Joe Cullen. Humphries barely survived last match against Ricardo Pietreczko, battling a pro-German crowd and playing without his primary darts due to a pre-match equipment issue. However, once he got in a groove, he steamrolled back from a 3-1 deficit and won in easy fashion once the two reached the final set.
Meanwhile, Cullen beat Ryan Searle 4-2 in a back-and-forth affair that was characterized by missed chances. Even with some sloppy play, he was still able to average 96.5. He'll need to do at least that against Cool Hand Luke.
In the end, Humphries should hold him off, but I like Cullen to win at least a couple of sets. Taking him +2.5 is -200, but we can also take over 5.5 sets at a much cheaper -125. We lose out if Cullen somehow stuns Humphries 4-0 or 4-1, but I'm willing to look past those potential outcomes to pay the cheaper price.
Pick: Over 5.5 sets (-125)
