The PDC World Championship barrels onward on Wednesday with a tantalizing slate of matches you won't want to miss. This particularly goes for the evening session, which features an American for those of us watching in the USA, a 16-year-old prodigy named Luke Littler, and the grand finale — Peter Wright against Jim Williams.
Let's dive into all eight matches on the day along with predictions and picks.
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Radek Szaganski vs. Marko Kantele
- bet365 match odds: -400/+300
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -342/+342
- 2023 average: 91.04, 86.05
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.54, 84.14
- Most 180 odds: Szaganski +137, Tie +300, Kantele +137
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.11, 0.15
The day kicks off with sort of a snoozer. The favorite, Radek Szaganski, won a Players Championship title on the floor in October — no easy feat, as it requires seven straight wins against the top players in the world.
With that in mind plus just the statistical gap between him and Marko Kantele, Finland's finest, he's rightfully favored by quite a bit. I've taken a look at Kantele straight up, as well as on the set spread, but there's just not quite enough value in it for me at the moment to take him.
Pick: Pass
Steve Lennon vs. Owen Bates
- bet365 match odds: -138/+110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +104/-104
- 2023 average: 92.60, 88.76
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.04, 90.35
- Most 180 odds: Lennon +225, Tie +500, Bates -150
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.19, 0.28
If you've heard of young Owen Bates, it's probably because the PDC disallowed the nickname he'd been sporting as he's made his way up the darting circuit — The Master.
Seeing as the nickname fell between his first and last name, you can see why the PDC didn't want that being said on TV in the biggest tourney of the year.
I digress…
Bates is a very talented young player, nicknames aside. He averaged 120 in a match earlier this year…120! The advanced stats at DartsOrakel peg him as just a slight favorite, but most of the market has him around +110. Meanwhile, Caesars has 20 cents of extra value — enough to make me pull the trigger.
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His opponent Steve Lennon has been in this tournament a handful of times and won some matches, too, which isn't something to write off. Even if you want to make him a slight favorite in your mind, though, +130 is still a strong price for Bates.
Pick: Owen Bates +130 (Caesars)
William O'Connor vs. Bhav Patel
- bet365 match odds: -3300/+1400
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: N/A
- 2023 average: 92.14, 72.30
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.37, 71.91
- Most 180 odds: O'Connor -275, Tie +375, Patel +500
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.23, 0.09
Along with the Jim Williams vs. Norman Madhoo affair, this game is expected to be one of the most lopsided of the first round. In case you missed it, Williams beat Madhoo 3-0 and didn't even lose a single leg in the process.
While we probably can't expect The Magpie, William O'Connor, to whitewash Bhav Patel in legs, this one should not be close whatsoever.
With that said, there's a market that is really catching my eye — the match treble or "King of the Oche" prop, as some books refer to it as, which requires a player to win, hit the most 180s and have the highest checkout. The latter of the three requirements is the most random, as a player could be otherwise destroyed but pluck out one big finish and destroy the ticket.
However, this match should be so lopsided that he will likely be winning nine legs to potentially just a few from Patel, thus giving him a lot more total checkouts and only a slim chance that one of Patel's few is higher than any of O'Connor's.
The odds on this prop vary quite a bit, especially as some books allow you to bet "neither" while others don't, but ESPN BET offers a much better price than some others, which have O'Connor as high as -250. Get out the hammer and smash this one while you can.
Pick: O'Connor Most 180s, Highest Checkout & Win -110 (ESPN Bet)
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Ross Smith (16) vs. Niels Zonneveld
- bet365 match odds: -334/+250
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -186/+186
- 2023 average: 96.18, 91.59
- Avg. since Sep 1: 96.95, 90.14
- Most 180 odds: Smith -225, Tie +600, Zonneveld +275
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.37, 0.29
One of our favorite pre-tourney value bets, Ross Smith, takes on Niels Zonneveld in a match that admittedly could be a bit hairier than I'd like.
Niels Zonneveld isn't the most consistent player, but he has levels and he has the scoring ability to keep up with Smudger — whose 0.37 180s per leg stat is the best in the world this year.
The advanced stats think the oddsmakers are giving Smith too much of an edge, which may be correct, but I don't know if Zonneveld has the stage presence and experience at this point of his career to take down the major champ.
I'll pass on this match and root for Smith to move on and keep my longshot ticket alive.
Pick: Pass
Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Ryan Joyce vs. Alex Spellman
- bet365 match odds: -250/+200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -163/+163
- 2023 average: 93.25, 88.98
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.27, 91.50
- Most 180 odds: Joyce -120, Tie +450, Spellman +162
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.21, 0.17
The third American — and only one remaining — in the tournament, Alex Spellman, will hope to have better luck than his fellow countrymates did.
He takes on Ryan Joyce, a seasoned vet with plenty of experience and a quarterfinals appearance at the Worlds back in 2019. Since then, he's struggled to make any sort of runs, and Spellman could give him troubles.
Being an American dartist, he doesn't get many chances to play against the world's best on the PDC, but he definitely has the ability, and there's an argument that he's the most talented in the United States. He could show that here, and at north of 2-1, I'll take a shot on him.
Pick: Spellman +205 (FanDuel)
Richard Veenstra vs. Ben Robb
- bet365 match odds: -200/+162
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -130/+130
- 2023 average: 92.91, 86.49
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.84, 88.46
- Most 180 odds: Veenstra +120, Tie +450, Robb +120
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.22, 0.23
The second match of the evening features a name that certainly isn't well known in Richard Veenstra against Ben Robb, a top talent in the Oceanic circuit.
Veenstra isn't well known, but he's boasted a top-32 average over the past few months and averaged nearly five points more this past year than in 2022.
I like Veenstra here against the Kiwi, but I was surprised to see his odds all the way up around the -200 mark. I'm not sure I like him that much.
I'll consider him -1.5 on the set spread, which can be found around even, but I may not end up biting at all.
Pick: Pass
Christian Kist vs. Luke Littler
- bet365 match odds: +220/-275
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +252/-252
- 2023 average: 90.49, 92.28
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.56, 91.27
- Most 180 odds: Kist +800, Tie +700, Littler -600
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.15, 0.31
Gian van Veen disappointed us as he suffered a huge upset to "Hugo" Leung in the most shocking game of the tournament thus far. Fellow darts prodigy Luke Littler, at just 16 years of age, doesn't intend to do the same.
This is a matchup that appears to be more or less properly priced on paper, but there's one element that may not be accounted for in the odds — an injury to Christian Kist's hand. The Lipstick's numbers are quite solid, but we saw him average below 70 in his match against Ricardo Pietreczko in the Players Championship Finals.
Kist said the other day that tendonitis is still bothering him a bit, but he's hoping to be without pain by the match. I can't say for sure whether it's the injury or something else, but most books don't even have this match on the board.
Littler is a tremendous talent, capable of averages well north of 100, and he did just that when he beat van Veen in the Youth Championship a couple of weeks ago on a big stage in a televised game.
He has the game, he has the bottle, and he might have an additional edge thanks to Kist's hand. Bet him where you can.
Pick: Littler -275 (bet365)
Peter Wright (4) vs. Jim Williams
- bet365 match odds: -188/+150
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +112/-112
- 2023 average: 93.71, 95.21
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.16, 94.77
- Most 180 odds: Wright -110, Tie +550, Williams +125
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.24, 0.24
This matchup could be the most enticing match of the second round when Peter Snakebite Wright draws a very capable opponent in Jim Williams, who is known as The Quiff.
Williams was on my radar from the get-go, and I wasn't alone. Obviously, you don't want to have to play a World Champ in the second round, but Wright has been very susceptible this year, and his average has dropped off by a handful of points since his peak.
He can still turn it on and show the elite levels, but guess what? So can Williams.
When I saw Williams open at +265 at DraftKings after he beat Norman Madhoo, I was lucky enough to pounce on it early. I knew Wright would be favored, as he should be given his pedigree, but not by that much.
What I didn't expect was that the line would move this much towards Williams. Like I said, I'm not alone in The Quiff's corner. Even so, I still think there's value in backing him. His odds have fallen as low as +140 at some books, but he can still be found at +160 on FanDuel.
Pick: Williams +160 (FanDuel)
