What a day of darts we had on Wednesday, which was highlighted by the final two matches of the night. 16-year-old Luke Littler had the best game of the tournament, and a top seed and former World Champion, Peter Wright, was knocked out by Jim Williams.
That same teenager is back in action on Thursday in what looks like another great match, and several other big names will be featured as well. Find my best bets and predictions for Day 7 of the PDC World Darts Championship below.
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Mickey Mansell vs. Xiochen Zong
- bet365 match odds: -600/+400
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -321/+321
- 2023 average: 92.75, 83.78
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.14, 80.54
- Most 180 odds: Mansell -138, Tie +400, Zong +200
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.18, 0.16
The top players on the Asian circuit who qualified have been the story of the tournament thus far. "Hugo" Leung, a 10-1 dog, toppled Gian van Veen and won over the crowd in the process. Tomoyo Goto, who was nearly 5-1 himself, did the same to Ian White.
Xiochen Zong will look to follow suit against Mickey Mansell. The oddsmakers have underestimated some of these international qualifiers based on their averages, but this is Ally Pally — anything can happen.
Zong's odds were longer at one point, but it seems like people are willing to take a shot on him as he's down to +400 at most books. However, FanDuel has him at a full dollar higher at +500 — which is definitely worth a shot in my eyes. That is a viable option, as is betting him on the spread (+1.5 at +175 or +2.5 at -175) in case you're not fully confident in him.
Pick: Zong +500 (FanDuel)
Luke Woodhouse vs. Berry van Peer
- bet365 match odds: -300/+240
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -292/+292
- 2023 average: 92.87, 89.76
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.30, 88.56
- Most 180 odds: Woodhouse -120, Tie +500, van Peer +137
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.26, 0.20
The second match of the day features a Dartitis survivor in Berry van Peer against Luke Woodhouse, a fairly young and fairly talented player who just hasn't reached that next level yet.
I will be rooting on van Peer, as he's overcome a lot of adversity since his near-terminal Dartitis, but there's just not enough value in the line for me at the moment to warrant a bet.
Pick: Pass
Madars Razma (32) vs. Mike De Decker
- bet365 match odds: +137/-175
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +116/-116
- 2023 average: 90.54, 93.41
- Avg. since Sep 1: 91.24, 93.47
- Most 180 odds: Razma +600, Tie +650, De Decker -450
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.13, 0.32
This match is pretty mid, as the kids would say.
We have Razmatazz Madars Razma on one hand and The Real Deal Mike De Decker on the other. If "The Real Deal" means no major quarterfinals appearances in nine years since your career began, then that nickname checks out.
Though unseeded, The Real Deal is the real favorite in this match, as Razma hasn't been as dangerous this year as he was in 2022. The advanced stats say he might have some value, though, as they have the line closer to a pick 'em.
My initial line shopping still had me on the fence, as most books have Razma in the +130s, but Caesars has him all the way up at +150. I think this will be a close affair, and at +150, I'll give him a go.
Pick: Razma +150 (Caesars)
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Rob Cross (8) vs. Thibault Tricole
- bet365 match odds: -1000/+600
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -308/+308
- 2023 average: 96.24, 92.32
- Avg. since Sep 1: 97.37, 91.81
- Most 180 odds: Cross -250, Tie +450, Tricole +350
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.23, 0.16
Rob Cross was one of my value picks to win the title at around 16-1 before the tournament began. However, I'm hoping the Frenchman Thibault Tricole can give him at least a little bit of a scare.
At -1000, Cross is one of the bigger R2 favorites on the board, but the advanced stats think the line should be much closer. I would say that -300ish for Cross would be a stretch for sure, but -1000 and the accompanying spread lines that go with it are providing value on Tricole.
You can get him at even odds to take home a set. Don't get me wrong, I've lost a couple of painful +2.5 spread bets thus far this tournament, but there's really only been a couple of matches in which the underdog hasn't threatened to win one of the sets — and those matches featured some really poor players. Tricole is strong enough where he should get chances, and he'll just need to take one.
Pick: Tricole +2.5 +100 (bet365)
Evening Session: 2 pm ET
Andrew Gilding (20) vs. Luke Littler
- bet365 match odds: +250, -334
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +186/-186
- 2023 average: 93.54, 92.28
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.42, 91.27
- Most 180 odds: Gilding +450, Tie +650, Littler -350
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.18, 0.31
Luke Littler…dear lord. The 16-year-old made his debut on Wednesday by casually averaging 106 in a 3-0 victory over Christian Kist. If you were wondering if he was going to perform on the big stage, well…there's no need to wonder anymore.
At the time of publishing, bet365 became the first book to open lines for this game, with Littler at -334. They also just moved him to +1000 to win the tournament, the fifth-best odds of anyone.
The advanced stats think this might be an overreaction, but the advanced stats didn't just watch what I did on TV. This kid is electric and was not fazed one bit by the pressure or atmosphere.
I'm going to wait and see what happens with the odds as more books open lines, and there's some time for the market to react. I'm honestly terrified to fade Luke the Nuke, though, even if there ends up being more value on Gilding.
Pick: TBD, likely pass
Danny Noppert (7) vs. Scott Williams
- bet365 match odds: -300/+240
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -289/+289
- 2023 average: 94.25, 91.25
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.08, 92.12
- Most 180 odds: Noppert +120, Tie +500, Williams +110
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.25, 0.25
This R2 match was one I was hoping we would get to see before the tournament started, as the brash Scott Williams is someone I figured would bring upset potential to the table. I still do, but are his odds juicy enough to bet?
He ranges from +210 to +250 across the market — which is not horrible, but I'd prefer a little longer. The Freeze, Danny Noppert, is a high quality player, but he has been known to mix in a dud of a match or two more often than other top-16 players, I'd say.
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There are a few points of separation between their averages, but Williams has the levels to reach Noppert, and Noppert isn't immune to dropping down to Williams or below.
I will wait a bit longer to see if the line heads in Noppert's direction, but if not, I will look to lock in Williams at +250.
Pick: Williams +250 (FanDuel)
Gabriel Clemens (22) vs. Man Lok Leung
- bet365 match odds: -275/+220
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -541/+541
- 2023 average: 94.14, 83.42
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.78, 84.61
- Most 180 odds: Clemens +100, Tie +550, Leung +120
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.26, 0.14
Man Lok Leung, also known as Hugo, shocked the world a few days ago by beating Gian van Veen — one of the young favorites making his debut this year.
He was a huge 'dog in that match, around +1000 or higher, but he has certainly changed the minds of the oddsmakers, who have him at just +220 against Gabriel Clemens — a semifinalist in this tourney last year.
I reckon they may have overreacted, though. That may not have been Leung's A+ game, but it was not far from it. Meanwhile, he averaged just a tick above Clemens' seasonal average.
It hurts me to fade Hugo, as he was pretty darn electric out there, but I don't know if he can repeat that magic.
Pick: Clemens -275
Damon Heta (10) vs. Martin Lukeman
- bet365 match odds: -250/+200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -230/+230
- 2023 average: 94.40, 92.24
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.62, 93.53
- Most 180 odds: Heta -225, Tie +600, Lukeman +275
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.28, 0.19
The final match of the day features the top Aussie, Damon Heta, against a solid tour player in Martin Lukeman.
Heta has way more big-stage experience and higher levels, but their seasonal averages aren't that far apart. I'm honestly surprised Heta isn't favored more given his pedigree, but some books such as Caesars have him as low as -200 (keep your eye out for arbitrage opportunities).
If anything, I'm leaning towards Heta in that lower moneyline range, but for now I'm holding off on any bets.
Pick: Pass
