Just two more days of darting action before the Christmas break — savor it while you can!
We've seen some great darts, but there's plenty more to come. Friday features several seeded players with championship hopes, but I think some of them might be heading home early. Let's take a look at the action:
Afternoon Session: 7:30 am ET
Brendan Dolan (28) vs. Mickey Mansell
- bet365 match odds: -175/+137
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -130/+130
- 2023 average: 92.42, 92.75
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.56, 92.14
- Most 180 odds: Dolan +162, Tie +400, Mansell -110
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.15, 0.18
The day begins with a Northern Irish battle of friends, as Brendan Dolan and Mickey Mansell battle it out for a chance to play The Iceman, Gerwyn Price.
Dolan has a much better career track record, but at this point in his career, he's more or less an average player on tour. Mansell, whose average is a hair better than his old friend's, has enough skill to take him out.
I expect this one to be gritty, with plenty of opportunities for both dartists. In matches like this, you'll find me barking with the dogs more often than not.
Pick: Mansell +142 (FanDuel)
Jose De Sousa (25) vs. Jeffrey de Graaf
- bet365 match odds: -250/+200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -239/+239
- 2023 average: 93.09, 85.70
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.48, 86.42
- Most 180 odds: De Sousa -163, Tie +550, de Graaf +225
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.30, 0.18
The Special One, Jose De Sousa, is infamous for his miscounts. He's a former major winner, but his game has certainly fallen off in recent years.
With that said, I think there's some special value on De Sousa, with the -225 at Caesars being a much more affordable price than the -250's and -275's across the rest of the market. Jeffrey de Graaf squeaked through R1 against Ritchie Edhouse, but his standard is well below that of De Sousa's, and I think his only chance of winning is if De Sousa really comes out with a stinker.
Pick: De Sousa -225 (Caesars)
Krzysztof Ratajski (24) vs. Jamie Hughes
- bet365 match odds: -350/+275
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -146/+146
- 2023 average: 94.94, 90.75
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.11, 89.84
- Most 180 odds: Ratajski +137, Tie +400, Hughes +110
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.17, 0.18
My biggest tourney longshot bet, Krzysztof Ratajski (200-1), begins his campaign against Jamie Hughes, who has struggled lately after showing some promise in 2019 and 2020.
The advanced stats at DartsOrakel suggest there's a lot of value on Hughes, but I think the numbers underestimate Ratajski, who has way more experience and success in big tournaments — hence the respect the oddsmakers are giving him.
I think if you're going to bet on Hughes, take him on a 3-2 exact score prop (more in the +600 to +700 range) because I just don't see Ratajski rolling over here. I will hold off, though, as Hughes wasn't convincing enough for me in R1 to back him and fade my longshot, The Polish Eagle.
Pick: Pass
Dirk van Duijvenbode (12) vs. Boris Krčmar
- bet365 match odds: +130/-163
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -159/+159
- 2023 average: 95.56, 91.97
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.01, 91.79
- Most 180 odds: van Duijvenbode +110, Tie +450, Krcmar +125
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.37, 0.17
The afternoon ends with a very interesting match that has plenty of angles to dig into. Dirk van Duijvenbode was one of the top handful of players in the world earlier this year, but he's dealing with a very unfortunate shoulder injury that has really impacted his game in recent months.
He's been averaging in the low-to-mid 80s in his most recent matches — a far cry from the upper 90s he was living in during the spring and summer. Anecdotes heard on the telly suggest he's been playing well in exhibitions and demos these past couple of weeks while warming up for the Worlds, but he's gone on record saying it's still quite a factor.
After opening as the favorite, money has poured in on his opponent Boris Krčmar, something I expected as it's followed the trend of the past few van Duijvenbode matches.
However, I think it's gone too far. It's unlikely van Duijvenbode is going to be hammering home 180s and averaging close to 100 like he can, but even in these recent poor matches, he's been able to turn it on at times. It's just the consistency that isn't there.
In this set play format, I think he'll be close enough to Krčmar that he'll have opportunities to win sets and win the match.
Pick: van Duijvenbode +130 (bet365)
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Evening Session: 2 pm ET
Dimitri Van den Bergh (15) vs. Florian Hempel
- bet365 match odds: -225/+175
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -154/+154
- 2023 average: 93.72, 89.39
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.41, 93.62
- Most 180 odds: Van den Bergh -188, Tie +550, Hempel +240
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.29, 0.22
Dancing Dimitri Van den Bergh has drawn a familiar face in R2, the same player who upset him in R2 two years ago when he was the No. 5 seed. That man is Florian Hempel — former professional German handball player. Well, he's still German, but he's now a dartist.
This time around, Hempel gets a Van den Bergh who has been way off his game this year. Van den Bergh should certainly still be favored, but I don't think by this much.
Pick: Hempel +182 (FanDuel)
Martin Schindler (26) vs. Jermaine Wattimena
- bet365 match odds: -175/+137
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +102/-102
- 2023 average: 94.26, 92.30
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.98, 91.42
- Most 180 odds: Schindler -250, Tie +600, Wattimena +333
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.30, 0.15
The second match of the evening is one that I just can't find an angle on, to be honest. DartsOrakel certainly likes Jermaine Wattimena's value, but I'm less of a fan, as I think the moneyline market looks pretty fair.
I'm also torn on the 180s market, in which Martin Schindler, a big hitter of the maximums, is a sizable favorite. I'm not going to dig deeper and force the issue, though.
Pick: Pass
Raymond van Barneveld (29) vs. Radek Szagański
- bet365 match odds: -225/+175
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +118/-118
- 2023 average: 93.40, 91.04
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.50, 92.54
- Most 180 odds: van Barneveld -350, Tie +550, Szaganski +500
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.24, 0.11
The legend, Raymond van Barneveld, makes his return to Ally Pally and you can guarantee that the Barney Army is in full force. His opponent, Radek Szagański, had a very sketchy R1 win against Marko Kantele in which he averaged in the low 80s. He's played well otherwise as of late, but his performance on the stage left a lot to be desired.
Whether or not he can improve upon that is questionable in my mind, as he has little stage experience and will have the biggest crowd possible going against him. The statisticians don't agree, but I'll be fading Szagański and taking the ex World Champ.
Pick: van Barneveld -225 (Caesars)
Chris Dobey (17) vs. William O'Connor
- bet365 match odds: -250/+200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -225/+225
- 2023 average: 95.92, 92.20
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.94, 92.55
- Most 180 odds: Dobey -163, Tie +550, O'Connor +225
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.23
Chris Dobey has shown this past year he can beat the elite. William O'Connor is … the average.
O'Connor beat Bhav Patel 3-0 in sets and 9-0 in legs, but Patel was one of the worst couple of players to earn a spot in the tournament. It's essentially both of these players' first match of the tourney.
I'm not sure that's going to help O'Connor, who is hoping to make the 3rd round for the third time in his career. He got to do whatever he felt like against Patel, who was typically miles behind each leg. Now it's O'Connor who will likely be playing catch up to Dobey given the latter's scoring prowess.
I like Dobey at this price on the moneyline, but I think he should win this one easily enough that I'm comfortable taking him -1.5, which can be found at even money at BetMGM.
Pick: Dobey -1.5 +100 (BetMGM)
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