Savor Saturday while you can, it's the last day of darts until the players return Wednesday from Christmas break. We've had a very exciting opening few rounds with shocking upsets, great storylines and a variety of nice winners in these daily betting breakdowns.
We have eight more matches today and I have six bets to make in an attempt to boost the bankroll and pay off these pesky credit card bills that have piled up thanks to a Whoville-esque Christmas shopping bender.
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Kim Huybrechts (31) vs. Richard Veenstra
- bet365 match odds: -110/-110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -111/+111
- 2023 average: 92.12, 92.81
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.46, 93.48
- Most 180 odds: Huybrechts -138, Tie +500, Veenstra +175
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.21, 0.22
The Saturday slate begins with a match that looks like a toss up from every angle. Kim Huybrechts is the more seasoned player with plenty of Ally Pally appearances over the years, but it's the Dutchman, Richard Veenstra, who has slightly better numbers this year.
I'm going to start my slate by turning to the 180 market. As you'll see in the stats, it's Veenstra who has filled up the lipstick a hair more often this year, yet it's Huybrechts who has a fairly big edge in the odds. I imagine this may be an overreaction to Veenstra's round one match, in which he managed just a single maximum in his 3-0 victory over Ben Robb.
The odds on this bet vary quite a bit — 75 cents or so across the market — but if you're able to get north of +175, I really like this bet.
Pick: Veenstra Most 180s +210 (FanDuel)
Callan Rydz (30) vs. Ricardo Pietreczko
- bet365 match odds: +137/-175
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +215/-215
- 2023 average: 93.01, 93.90
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.56, 94.60
- Most 180 odds: Rydz -110, Tie +500, Pietreczko +125
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.23, 0.20
Did you read what I wrote for the first match? Well, copy/paste everything and just replace the names — this time with Callan Rydz being the beneficiary.
Rydz is a streaky player, but he can hit lots of big scores when he's on. DartsOrakel believes he has a 49.1% chance (+104 odds) to out-180 Pietreczko, which is close to what most books are offering. However, you can find yourself a juicy +140 — about an 8% implied edge — at DraftKings.
Pick: Rydz Most 180s +140 (DraftKings)
Johnny Clayton (9) vs. Steve Lennon
- bet365 match odds: -300/+240
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -136/+136
- 2023 average: 96.08, 92.51
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.51, 92.78
- Most 180 odds: Clayton -120, Tie +500, Lennon +162
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.21, 0.20
The Ferret, Johnny Clayton, is a four-time major winner and has quietly become one of the most accomplished darts players this century. However, he's had a rough patch ever since he lost in the World Matchplay finals to Nathan Aspinall. You can see it in the average, too, which has gone from elite to average over the past few months.
Steve Lennon isn't a super scary opponent, but it's tough to say which Clayton is going to appear. The folks at DartsOrakel suggest there's plenty of value on Lennon, but even with Clayton's recent woes, I'm still afraid to fade him. If he returns to his normal game, he could easily wipe the floor with Lennon. If you're going to take anyone on the moneyline, I'd suggest Lennon, as Clayton doesn't warrant laying such heavy juice right now. As for me, I'll hold off entirely.
Pick: Pass
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Daryl Gurney (27) vs. Steve Beaton
- bet365 match odds: -250/+200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -299/+299
- 2023 average: 94.99, 91.57
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.25, 92.24
- Most 180 odds: Gurney -188, Tie +550, Beaton +250
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.24, 0.20
I hate to be boring, but the afternoon slate ends with another match in which I'm having trouble finding value. Superchin Daryl Gurney vs. The Bronzed Adonis, Steve Beaton, will certainly be fun to watch, but I'll be rooting for a cracker of a game rather than rooting with my wallet.
Pick: Pass
Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Ryan Searle (19) vs. Tomoya Goto
- bet365 match odds: -600/+400
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -654/+654
- 2023 average: 95.28, 86.21
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.45, 89.19
- Most 180 odds: Searle -163, Tie +550, Goto +225
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.26, 0.22
Tomoya Goto joined Man Lok Leung in the group of underestimated players from the Asian Tour with big Round 1 upsets the other day when he beat Ian White. Goto averaged over 90, but more notably, hit seven 180s in the 17 legs played.
He faces Heavy Metal Ryan Searle, a big hitter of 180s in his own right. I'm not totally convinced Goto can repeat — or improve on — his performance and beat Searle, who is just a rung below the world's elite in terms of arrowsmithery.
I'll be backing Searle for most 180s in this one. DartsOrakel thinks this should happen about 64% of the time, but at -155, we have a slight edge. Nothing too crazy, but I'm also on board due to my faith in Searle to hit a handful and belief in regression from Goto.
Pick: Searle Most 180s -155 (BetMGM)
Josh Rock (23) vs. Berry van Peer
- bet365 match odds: -400/+300
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -376/+376
- 2023 average: 96.03, 89.76
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.88, 88.56
- Most 180 odds: Rock -175, Tie +550, van Peer +240
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.27, 0.20
Move over, Josh Rock — there's a new young superstar that's the talk of the town and his name is Luke Littler. I'm kidding … well, sort of.
Rock was last year's story and he did quite well for a 21-year-old, reaching the fourth round and dumping out a highly seeded player in the process.
The hype has faded a bit, though, but perhaps that's a good thing. He's probably happy to face Berry van Peer, who upset Luke Woodhouse in a gritty 5-set Round 1 affair. Not to say van Peer is bad, but he certainly has less of a chance to beat Rock than Woodhouse would have.
The odds for this match look pretty on point, but I think Rock has this in the bag. I'm not one to take -400 moneylines, but I do fancy him to win by at least two sets and will look to the spread here.
Pick: Rock -1.5 -160 (DraftKings)
Stephen Bunting (18) vs. Ryan Joyce
- bet365 match odds: -188/+150
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -148/+148
- 2023 average: 95.85, 93.34
- Avg. since Sep 1: 97.35, 94.43
- Most 180 odds: Bunting -163, Tie +600, Joyce +225
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.30, 0.21
Though he's the number 18 seed, The Bullet, Stephen Bunting, has been playing like a top-five player in the world over the past few months. He's made some deep runs at majors and his average has crept up over 97 in the process.
Meanwhile, Relentless Ryan Joyce was just that in his Round 1 game against Alex Spellman, in which he averaged 100 and was nearly automatic on double 16.
Joyce is a high quality player, but I'm going to have to disagree with the DartsOrakel fair odds. I feel Bunting has just had too much class and has been too consistently good lately to fade.
Pick: Bunting -175 (Caesars)
Nathan Aspinall (6) vs. Ricky Evans
- bet365 match odds: -300/+240
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -295/+295
- 2023 average: 95.88, 93.02
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.34, 92.68
- Most 180 odds: Aspinall -163, Tie +550, Evans +200
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.30, 0.24
The Asp, Nathan Aspinall, won perhaps the second-biggest trophy in darts this summer — the World Matchplay. Since then? Not so good in terms of results and the numbers over the past few months back that up.
He gets a capable opponent in Rapid Ricky Evans, who easily took care of Simon Adams in Round 1. It's not going to shock me if Aspinall joins the list of seeded players to lose in their opening match, but I think the most value can be found by betting Evans on the spread.
Most books are offering around even odds on this wager, but Caesars is way up at +140. In fact, it's so far off the market that there are still some small arbitrage opportunities.
Pick: Evans +1.5 +140 (Caesars)
