There's no better way to ring in the new year than with darts. If you missed the final slate of 2023 on Saturday, I feel bad for you. What. A. Day.
Those matches shaped the quarterfinals we have on tap for Monday, which feature the likes of Michael van Gerwen, Luke Humphries and Luke Littler, the super darting teenager.
Here's how I'm betting all four of the quarters:
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Chris Dobey (17) vs. Rob Cross (8)
- bet365 match odds: -110/-110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +212/-212
- 2023 average: 96.17, 96.28
- Avg. since Sep 1: 96.66, 97.40
- Most 180 odds: Dobey -250, Tie +900, Cross +250
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.23
Sound the alarms, we have a potential cracker on our hands and a rematch from last year.
We have two hot hands — Chris Dobey and Rob Cross — facing off in the tightest quarterfinal, per the oddsmakers. This opened as a true pick 'em and has remained there.
Last year, Dobey got the best of Cross, 4-2 in the fourth round, with both players averaging over a ton. This year, I'll again be looking at the averages. Though not a widely available prop, this really caught my eye.
In 19 career matches at the Ally Pally, "Voltage" Rob Cross has averaged above 96.5 15 times, yet that is the number posted at DraftKings. Meanwhile, it's 98.5 at FanDuel.
Cross has played very well in recent months, boasting an average of nearly 97.5 since September, and Dobey's play has been outrageous this tournament, which should help boost Cross's average. We just saw Dobey beat Michael Smith 4-0 in a match in which Smith went 4-12 on the doubles and averaged over 102! Dobey was winning legs before Smith even had a chance, minimizing missed doubles and therefore, low scores. This match could result in something similar with very few legs getting ugly and hurting averages.
Though the over at DraftKings is slightly juiced up, I still love this bet at the 96.5 number.
Pick: Cross over 96.5 average -135 (DraftKings)
Luke Littler vs. Brendan Dolan
- bet365 match odds: -600/+400
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -481/+481
- 2023 average: 92.52, 92.57
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.86, 92.95
- Most 180 odds: Littler -1200, Tie +1100, Dolan +900
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.15
How does Luke Littler keep doing it? How does Brendan Dolan keep doing it? We have an unstoppable 16-year-old thrashing opponents with ton-plus averages in one corner and a mediocre veteran with back-to-back upset wins.
Though the average was merely 105, shy of his first round 106, Littler's win over the legend and one of his heroes, Raymond van Barneveld, was his most impressive performance yet. I felt it was potentially the point at which Littler would start to feel the pressure and weight of the situation, yet he goes and does that — he's built different.
Dolan lucked out yesterday by getting a very subpar version of Gary Anderson, but you can't take away the fact that he's gotten the job done in big pressure spots in each of his three matches. He's averaged around 95 over the stretch, a fair chunk above his seasonal average, but will need to once again pull one out of his hat or hope the kid crumbles if he wishes to advance to the semis.
Oddsmakers — and the market — are not banking on it. Littler opened at -450 and has moved to -600.
As I mentioned last round, since Littler is so young, you are not able to bet on his matches at certain sportsbooks in certain states, severely limiting your options and line shopping ability.
With that said, I don't think Littler's run is coming to an end and if the match is available at your book(s), toss the kid on as a parlay piece to boost your payout.
Pick: Littler as a parlay piece
Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Michael van Gerwen (2) vs. Scott Williams
- bet365 match odds: -900/+550
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -1042/+1042
- 2023 average: 98.37, 91.43
- Avg. since Sep 1: 98.95, 92.40
- Most 180 odds: van Gerwen -138, Tie +800, Williams +137
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.29, 0.26
Oh, you thought Stephen Bunting and his hot hand had a chance to beat Michael van Gerwen? That's cute. Mighty Mike chewed him up and spit him out in a 4-0 whitewash. Now, Scott Williams is on the menu.
The dedicated daily readers (are there any of you out there??) know that "Shaggy" has been our best friend throughout the tournament, piling up three straight upsets for a bit over six units worth of loot. I'm afraid his run has come to an end, though. Danny Noppert, Martin Schindler and Damon Heta are all good players, but they're all a couple of rungs below MvG in the PDC pyramid.
Shaggy's A-game is more or less the expected level of play from van Gerwen, which is obviously reflected in the odds. After opening at an already huge favorite of -700, MvG is up to -900.
With the match length increasing to first to five sets this round, we can get a bit cheeky and look to an alternative spread — a very alternative spread. All I want Williams to do is win a single set. There are a couple of ways to go about this, but at bet365, you can take him +4.5 at -350. Other books have this north of -500 and DartsOrakel has MvG not winning 5-0 with fair odds of about -450.
Taking one set sounds easy enough, especially for someone who has beat three seeded players, but rewind the clock a year and you'll see van Gerwen beat a superior player in Chris Dobey 5-0 in this exact same round.
Not exactly the most comfortable -350 bet in history, but one I like given Williams' recent play and a value-perspective.
Pick: Williams +4.5 -350 (bet365)
Luke Humphries vs. Dave Chisnall (11)
- bet365 match odds: -200/+162
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -680/+680
- 2023 average: 98.23, 96.13
- Avg. since Sep 1: 99.05, 96.05
- Most 180 odds: Humphries +110, Tie +850, Chisnall +100
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.33, 0.34
If the final match of the day can live up to what we saw in the final match on Saturday, we're all in for a real treat. The Humphries-Cullen affair was a cracker of epic proportions, ending in the wildest of ways and ultimately a gutting loss for Joe Cullen.
DartsOrakel still pegs Humphries as a huge favorite, but I'm not sure he's been convincing enough in this tournament to bet on him at the odds they're suggesting.
However, I do think we still have a bargain on our hands with Humphries at just -200. He was a pre-tourney favorite for a reason and, unlike recent tournaments in which he was mostly steamrolling opponents, he's shown grit and gumption by crawling out of holes in each of his past two matches.
I'm expecting the odds on Humphries to keep rising (he opened at -188) as we get closer to the match, so bet him early. I think he's a safe bet and value at anything under -250.
Pick: Humphries -200 (bet365)
