New Year's Day had a cracking set of quarterfinals. Luke "The Nuke" Littler's angsty teenage run continues after another amazing 100-plus average performance, Rob Cross shocked the world after coming back from a 4-0 deficit against Chris Dobey and Luke Humphries looked like the man we expected him to be before the tournament started, coasting to a 5-1 win against Dave Chisnall.
Not to mention, Scott Williams upset Michael van Gerwen as roughly an 8-1 underdog. Here's what the odds to hoist the Sid Waddell Trophy look like at bet365 for the four remaining players:
- Luke Humphries: +100
- Luke Littler: +175
- Rob Cross: +400
- Scott Williams: +1600
The two semifinals on Tuesday begin at 7:30 local time (2:30 p.m. ET) and will be first to six sets, bumping up yet again from the first-to-five format we saw in the quarterfinals.
Rob Cross (8) vs. Luke Littler
- bet365 match odds: +120/-150
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +126/-126
- 2023/2024 average: 96.39, 92.63
- Tournament average: 98.92, 100.29
- Most 180 odds: Cross +300, Tie +1000, Littler -300
- 2023/2024 180s per leg: 0.23, 0.31
- Tournament 180s per leg: 0.26, 0.36
Rob Cross bettors had probably already come to terms with their losses on Monday after "Voltage" found himself down 4-0 in a race to five sets against a very hot hand in Chris Dobey. Well, somehow, some way, Cross came back to win and now gets a chance to ruin a 16-year-old's dreams of winning the World Championship on debut.
Of course, Cross won this tournament on debut back in 2018 and beat Phil Taylor in the final match of "The Power's" illustrious career — only difference being Cross was 28, not 16 like Littler.
Littler is quite literally showing no holes in his game. There are only a couple of knocks on him so far, though neither are his fault. One is that he's sort of lucked out with the draw up until now. If we hadn't seen so many upsets, his past three matches could've been against James Wade, Peter Wright and Gerwyn Price or Gary Anderson. Instead, he's landed Matt Campbell, Raymond van Barneveld and Brendan Dolan. No escaping at this point, though, as he finally goes up against an elite dartist in Cross.
The other knock is that he's actually been too good. So good that we don't know how he'll react if he goes down a set or two or in a high-pressure spot late in the match. From everything we've seen, he'll probably handle it just fine, but I'd give the edge to the former world champion in Cross when it comes to those sort of intangibles because we know he can hold up and fight back if things aren't going his way.
Nevertheless, it's the kid who is still favored, opening up at -150 and remaining there at the time of writing. However, I'm going to have to be a Debbie Downer and bet on his run coming to an end.
Littler-mania is so hot right now that I think we're forgetting how good Cross has been lately, both before and during the tournament. He hasn't been invincible, but he's averaging just about 99 at Ally Pally thus far and just beat Dobey, the player with the highest average in the tournament, after being down 0-4. He was a pick 'em against a super in-form Dobey, yet a +120 dog against Littler.
It's still tough to gauge how we should be pricing Littler given how new to the scene he is, but I think this is an overreaction that presents value on Cross. I am not taking Cross straight-up, but instead looking to an alternate spread for him to beat the teen by at least two clear sets. With the matches quite long at this point in the tournament, this match could still be very close, Littler could average a ton and Cross could still win by 2-3 sets. It's just all about the big set-swinging legs and taking spots. At a 2-1 payout, I think this is a bargain on one of the top five players in the world over the past few months.
Pick: Cross -1.5 +200 (bet365 or BetRivers)
Scott Williams vs. Luke Humphries (3)
- bet365 match odds: +350/-500
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +1329/-1329
- 2023/2024 average: 91.58, 98.36
- Tournament average: 93.15, 95.28
- Most 180 odds: Williams +225, Tie +1000, Humphries -225
- 2023/2024 180s per leg: 0.26, 0.33
- Tournament 180s per leg: 0.34, 0.35
Though an MvG vs. Cool Hand Luke semifinal showdown was what we were all expecting, "Shaggy," Scott Williams, once again played party-pooper, upsetting a seeded player in his fourth straight match. He lucked out and got a very subpar version of van Gerwen, but he scored well and hit nearly 41% of his doubles en route to his best performance of the tournament — a 96.32 average.
Something similar will need to happen against Luke Humphries, I reckon, as it's unlikely Williams can catch Humphries if he comes out and plays the dominant darts we've largely seen from him in what is currently a 17-match win streak. With the matches even longer now, it's going to make it even tougher for Williams to win being the lesser player.
Despite being on the Shaggy moneyline bandwagon during his previous few matches, I sort of underestimated him and just bet +4.5 against van Gerwen, praying that he could take a mere set against Mighty Mike. Well, he won set one — not exactly a sweat. I find myself going back to the well, though, and taking that exact same bet at a somewhat similar price against Humphries. Only this time, Williams will need to win at least two sets for it to cash. I expect money on Humphries to move the line in his favor, though, so waiting for a better price should go in our favor. Depending on how the odds shake out, I may turn to the alternate over/under and bet over 7.5 with the same though process in mind. DartsOrakel believes there's less than a 1% chance of Williams winning 6-0 or 6-1, and I tend to agree. Assuming Humphries wins at least two sets could give us a better price for a very similar bet in theory.
Another, unrelated bet I'll be tacking on is on the most 180s prop. I think there's a case to be made to bet Williams at most sportsbooks given his recent play, but BetMGM has far different odds than the rest of the market. I'll be taking Humphries here at a discounted -155 (Williams is at +135 and Tie +1200), as the fair odds per DartsOrakel have Humphries around -275. I think that's a comfortable bet to make up to -200.
Pick: Williams +4.5 (-300 via BetMGM) OR over 7.5 sets (-300 via bet365) | Wait until close to match time for best line; Humphries Most 180s (-155 via BetMGM)
