If games went over or under much more often than the other, sports betting would be easy, wouldn't it?
The betting market is pretty good at creating accurate totals to split both sides 50/50.
But in most sports, games do go under slightly more often. It's not enough to beat the vig and be blindly profitable, though.
Here are over/under betting records for six major American sports in their last five seasons. It includes both the regular season and playoffs, but not the preseason.
Data is based on closing lines from Pinnacle in our Bet Labs database.
Over/Under Results Last 5 Seasons
Records listed as overs, unders, then pushes. Updated July 6, 2022.
| Sport | O/U Record | Under Win % |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | 644-700-11 | 52.1% |
| NBA | 3506-3471-84 | 49.7% |
| NHL | 3565-3575-450 | 50.1% |
| MLB | 5639-5827-549 | 50.8% |
| NCAAF | 1910-2045-54 | 51.7% |
| NCAAB | 11187-11229-283 | 50.1% |
It's human nature to root for points and offensive success instead of rooting for offensive ineptitude. So the betting market tends to price totals slightly too high.
Your bet is also never technically dead when you bet an over — there's always a chance the game goes to overtime, or there's a flurry of late scoring to push it over.
The NBA is the only sport over the last five years to have more overs than unders.
But what about historically? Sports change, and totals change along with them.
The average NBA total was 220.4 in 2021.
In 2010, the average total was 199.
Here's the over/under record for each sport since 2005.
Totals Since 2005
Records listed as overs, unders, then pushes. Updated July 6, 2022.
| Sport | O/U Record | Under Win % |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | 2490-2524-79 | 50.3% |
| NBA | 11132-11244-292 | 50.3% |
| NHL | 9705-10207-1620 | 51.3% |
| MLB | 19486-20091-1970 | 50.8% |
| NCAAF | 6537-6745-171 | 50.8% |
| NCAAB | 30969-31288-773 | 50.3% |
