How Are Soccer Shots & Shots on Target Props Actually Counted? A Bettor’s Guide

I've been betting a lot of weird same game parlays in Euro 2024 and Copa America matches, particularly at bet365, which allows you to bet both the over and under for shots and shots on target. Sportsbooks offer both these props for teams and players.

But it got me wondering — especially after Lionel Messi's corner kick that would have gone in if not for Chile's keeper — about what actually constitutes a shot in soccer, and what counts as a shot on target. So I did a deep dive through the house rules at popular U.S. sportsbooks to find out what is and is not a shot.

That corner from Messi did not count as a shot or shot on target (but would have had it been a goal).

General Rules to Know

• It's about intent — a shot or shot on target has to be a "deliberate attempt at goal," meaning the player does have to be making a clear effort to shoot at the net. It's not a shot if the player makes a pass that misses its target and rolls to the goalie. That does give the scorekeeper some liberty to determine the player's intentions, (and this is different from hockey, where any puck that would have gone in the net if not for the goalie counts as a shot, regardless of intent).
• Shots and shots on target can both come off any body part, as long as it's a scoring attempt — shooting with your foot, headers, knees, redirects, etc.
• bet365 uses Opta for its official scoring, so all bet settlements (and any qualms you have about what counts as a shot) lie with them.

Shots on Target

First, let's tackle shots on target, because all shots on target will also count as shots.

bet365 says it's a deliberate attempt to score that is on the frame of goal, including:

• All goals (regardless of the intent of the scorer)
• All deliberate shots that would have gone in had the keeper not stopped it
• Shots clearly on target blocked by a last-line defender, preventing the ball from entering the goal. If it's blocked by a defender further from the goal, it's not a shot on target.
• A shot that hits the post and goes in; if it hits the post and bounces out, it's not a shot on target

All goals (regardless of the intent of the scorer) is an important note, because Messi's cross from above did not count as a shot, but would have if it went in.

Shots (aka Shot Attempts)

There will always be more shots in a game than shots on target, because shots cover much more.

bet365 and DraftKings define a shot as any "deliberate attempt at goal" that:

• Goes into the net
• Is going toward goal and is blocked by a defender or the goalie
• Goes wide or over the net
• Hits the post or crossbar

This means a shot is not:

• A cross that goes wide/over the net, but was intended as a pass
• A pass that misses the intended target and rolls on net
• An own goal

This for example would not count as a shot, despite the goalie getting a glove on it. The intent was to cross the ball.

Where Subjectivity Comes into Play

Most of the time, it's pretty clear when a player is shooting. There are two main instances I've noticed where the scorekeepers at Opta may get it wrong, or at least you could argue that they did.

Shots that are immediately blocked

If a player is clearly taking a shot and it's blocked by a defender four yards in front of him, that's a shot. But it's less clear what a player's intent is when the shot is immediately blocked — were they trying to shoot, or pass? Often, it won't be counted as a shot.

This isn't a perfect example because based on the position of the player it's clear this was a cross, but because it gets blocked immediately, it's harder to tell their true intent.

Crosses vs. Shots

Sometimes, it's impossible to know a player's intent. Were they shooting, or putting it toward the net in hopes of connecting with a teammate?

This looked like a shot off a direct free kick, but was not counted as one. It was deemed a cross by the official scorers.