You've probably heard about the success of Wong teasers in the NFL — a nearly 25-year-old concept popularized by blackjack author Stanford Wong. Moving the spread through the key numbers of 3 and 7 hit at a greater rate than what it cost to buy the points you're getting.
The optimal teaser looks something like …
- Teasing the Bills from +2.5 to +8.5
- Teasing the Cowboys from -7.5 to -1.5
But don't go rushing to bet these teasers without understanding if you're getting a fair price.
That's because the price your sportsbook offers on two-team, 6-point teasers will impact whether or not the teaser is still mathematically advantageous. Ideally you'd want -110 on a two-team, 6-point teaser, but that's no longer available in the United States from the 10+ books we've looked at. And -130 on these teasers evaporates the edge immediately.
So which U.S. sportsbooks are giving the best prices on teasers? Let's dive in.
Tests run at 10 sportsbooks in New Jersey. If you've seen different prices or been limited on certain teaser types, please let us know.
The Basic Math
You can read Stuckey's full teaser guide for more info, but here's how the basic math looks.
NFL underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 teased six points have covered 75.3% of the time. Favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have covered about 76% of the time. They cover at a high rate because many NFL games end in these margins, given how points are scored in football.
To break even on a two-team, 6-point teaser at -110, you only need to win 72.4% of the time. That's an advantage, historically speaking, based on the cover rate I just detailed.
But to break even on a 6-point, two-team teaser at -130, you need to win 75.2% of the time. Based on those same cover rates, your entire advantage is gone at -130.
Road underdogs have been the best teaser pieces over the last decade.
Since it's #teaser week in the NFL, I wanted to look at Stanford Wong's original teaser tables with updated data.
Maybe don't leave out away teams in teaser legs🤔 pic.twitter.com/KnZaDFK1Mc— Benjamin Brown (@Ben_R_Brown_) September 22, 2021
Different Types of Teaser Pricing
There are three primary ways a sportsbook offers NFL teasers:
- Fixed price: All two-team, 6-point teasers cost the same. Taking the Texans from +16 to +22 is the same price as taking the Jets from +2.5 to +8.5 (even though the Jets line is much more advantageous for you).
- Dynamic prices: The book will charge you different prices depending on how advantageous the teaser price is. You'll get a much better price teasing the Texans from +16 to +22 than the Jets from +2.5 to +8.5.
- Choose your own spreads: Some books, like Fanatics, don't offer traditional teasers, and instead make you parlay alternate point spreads (which is exactly what a teaser is). This style gives you a little more control over your pricing, but it's rarely advantageous to go from +2 to +8 with choose your own spreads.
So Who Is Giving Fair Prices?
Sportsbook | 2-leg, 6-pt price | Pricing type |
---|---|---|
bet365 | -120 | Fixed |
DraftKings | -120 | Fixed |
Caesars | -125 | Fixed |
Hard Rock | -125 | Fixed |
BetMGM | -130 | Fixed |
FanDuel | -134 | Fixed |
BetRivers/Kambi | Dynamic | Alt Spreads |
ESPN BET | Dynamic | Alt Spreads |
Fanatics | Dynamic | Alt Spreads |
*Fanatics, ESPN BET and BetRivers all use alternate spreads to price their teasers, which means if you're trying to bet optimal teasers like +2.5 to +8.5, you're going to pay handsomely for it, and you should almost never bet them there.
And the winner is…
DraftKings and FanDuel are tied for the best among major sportsbooks at -120 for a 6-point, two-leg NFL teaser.
PlayUp actually had the best prices on teasers a few years ago, but it met an unfortunate demise.
Runner-up…
Caesars and Hard Rock both price these teasers at -125, the second best in the U.S.
Books to avoid…
FanDuel should be avoided because of its fixed price at -134. DraftKings is available in all the same states, and has a fixed price of -120.
BetRivers, ESPN BET and Fanatics should also generally be avoided, because they'll charge you north of -130 for optimal teasers.
For example, in NFL Week 2, this is how things look at ESPN BET:
- -142: Bills (+2.5 to +8.5) and Lions (-7.5 to -1.5)
- -115: Bills and Bengals (+5.5 to +11.5)
The top teaser follows the optimal strategy, while the bottom one doesn't, so you're getting a much better price.