The 94th Academy Awards could be summoned up by a quote from one of the nominations in the field of Best Actor. In The Power of the Dog, Phil Burbank states "a man was made by patience and the odds against him." Considering half the categories for this years Oscars are a two-entry race, patience and odds are the key to cashing tickets for Hollywood's biggest night.
The ceremony is set to take place on Sunday with a trio of hosts in Regina Hall, Wanda Sykes and Amy Schumer. The Power of the Dog, distributed worldwide by Netflix, has the most nominations at 12. The movies certainly hit us all through a variety of streaming services, providing narratives from a western drama, children of deaf adults and the story of Venus and Serena Williams' rise to stardom.
While leaks do occur for entertainment award ceremonies, they do not happen when it comes to the Oscars. A couple of thousand dollars can turn a 50/1 candidate into a favorite only for it to not win the award. The Academy Award voting base has increased in size and diversity, creating recent upsets in Best Picture and Best Director. Last year, Chadwick Boseman was the odds-on favorite at -1200 to win Best Actor, but the BAFTA winner Anthony Hopkins was not present to win at +700 odds in one of the quickest show closers of all time.
Knowing that money moves and not leaks is what moves the odds leads us back to Burbank's statement from The Power of the Dog. The odds for this years Academy Awards may be more about patience and knowing when to strike at the right time in several categories.
New to betting? Favorites have a minus (-) sign and the number indicates the money you would need to risk to win $100, whereas underdogs have a plus (+) sign while that number indicates the money you would win for every $100 bet.
Example: Dune is a +4000 underdog for Best Picture, which means you would net a $4,000 profit on a $100 bet if it wins. Learn more here.
Best Supporting Actress
Per Oscarmetrics, there is a slight trend between the billing of the supporting actress and the winner of the award. Ariana DeBose plays one of the more important roles in cinema history as Anita in West Side Story, first released as a stage musical in 1957. The role of Anita is critical to the story as DeBose mastered her scenes in the most important moments of the story.
The odds reflect the performance in listing DeBose as a heavy -1600 favorite, but is there room for an upset? Two other nominees in this category had a higher billing for their respective movies, Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog and Aunjunae Ellis for King Richard.
Per The Action Network Podcast, Ellis is quietly getting the buzz from members of the Academy who voted. While DeBose is the expert pick from plenty of critics, Ellis does have the buzz that has not hit the betting board.
Taking Ellis at 18/1 odds requires timing and patience. Expect steam to hit on Sunday as Hollywood gathers for the awards, which may lower the odds on DeBose as the buzz comes in on Ellis. This is a category I will be making a small wagers on a long shot and a possible buyback before the ceremony if DeBose odds dip under -1000.
Pick: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) +1800
Best Supporting Actor
The pure definition of the word 'buzz' might be what has happened to the odds of anything on the betting board associated with the movie CODA. For this specific category, Troy Kotsur has swept numerous awards this season for his role as a deaf father. While the Academy is familiar with mother Marlee Matlin, winner of Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God'in 1986, Kotsur has taken massive steam over 25-year-old Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog.
Best Supporting Actor is generally won by older actors and can often be referred to as a lifetime achievement award. While Kotsur has a checkmark in the age department, 100% of Gold Derby critics make Kotsur the winner in this category.
While Smit-McPhee played a crucial role in The Power of the Dog, plenty of those scenes came in tandem with Benedict Cumberbatch. Kotsur's performance is in a movie with no nominees for Best Actor or Actress, allowing his character as the backbone of the family to shine. This is one instance where the betting favorite is heavily underpriced.
Pick: Troy Kotsur (CODA) -400
Best Adapted Screenplay
There are no long-term trends for this category, which does not always win the award for Best Picture. Last year, The Father defeated Nomadland while previous winners such as Jojo Rabbit and BlackKkKlansman were not close to winning Best Picture. The trend over recent years is more and more non-fiction films being nominated and winning.
The leaders on the odds board are two movies that are also fighting for Best Picture. With odds flipping between CODA and The Power of the Dog, the Netflix-produced The Lost Daughter has captured plenty of critics attention with first- and second-place votes.
With over 11% of those critics choosing The Lost Daughter, the correct odds are closer to +770. As the top two movies duke it out, consider throwing a low-sized bet on the movie that has captured the attention of the voting base.
Pick: The Lost Daughter +800
Best Actress
The rules for winning Best Actress have been clear, play a historical character and do not fall between the ages of 35 to 60 years old.
There are plenty of historical characters in this years list of nominees from Kristen Stewart playing Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball and Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye. Both Chastain and Kidman fall into age range where winners are often left out, but Renee Zellweger did win this award at the age of 52 recently.
Stewart falls into the age category to win this award at 31, but there has been zero buzz around the role. The actress was not included as a nominee at the Screen Actors Guild or BAFTAs, as outrage continues that Lady Gaga did not receive a nomination for House of Gucci. Chastain took steam on the number after winning the Critics Choice Award, surpassing Kidman as the favorite in this category.
None of these performers were nominated at the BAFTAs making this the most wide-open race on the board. Chastain is listed at the top of plenty of Gold Derby critics ballots, giving her value on the number up through -400.
If there is one other competitor to watch for, its Olivia Colman at +500. The actress won this category in 2018 and was nominated an additional time for The Father last year. Colman is a powerhouse in the Best Actress division and was marked as first or second on plenty of ballots per Gold Derby.
Splitting a unit bet on Chastain and Colman may present a risk-free bet on the long shot winning the category.
Pick: Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) +500; Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) -175
Best Picture
The Academy recently increased the nomination size from five to 10, but in the list of this years candidates it comes down to just two movies. The Power of the Dog spent a few months with odds over -200 to win Best Picture until mid-March, when CODA steamed from a 5/1 underdog. There is no doubt in the eyes of the critics that every ballot will feature these two movies in the top spot.
The content from The Power of the Dog will generate plenty of negative and positive emotional reaction depending on the voter. There is no doubt this is a powerhouse movie from an acting, editing and cinematography point of view. While Cumberbatch did not win the BAFTA for Best Actor, he is the most dominating presence of any character on the Oscars board.
[SPOILER: The following clip is a critical scene from The Power of the Dog narrated by director Jane Campion]
The question is whether the social issues regarding the movie are enough to turn some of the voting base off of the movie. Actor Sam Elliott did not have kind words for the Western drama, while director Jane Campion had repercussions for comments about Venus and Serena Williams. Are those issues enough to turn a portion of the voting base against the Netflix film and cast third-place votes?
CODA is a tough sell, as Best Picture is generally won by films that have nominees in Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Film Editing. CODA is not nominated in any of the categories that historically play a factor in winning Best Picture. This movie is following in the same footsteps as 1917, a movie that was inspiring and left audiences in tears with no nominations in acting categories.
If a wager was made early on The Power of the Dog. then a certain hedge with CODA can be made now. There may not be much room left to bet on CODA at odds that are moving by the day. Steam is expected to continue on CODA as the sentimental favorite, but The Power of the Dog is by far the more complex and outstanding picture.
Remember, the results are sealed and no leaks ever come of the Academy Awards. Look to let a wonderful movie in CODA take all the steam before getting The Power of the Dog at plus-money on Sunday afternoon when the red carpet is rolled out.
Pick: The Power of the Dog -125 or Better (wait for CODA steam Sunday)
