"The Brutalist" is the -140 favorite to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars. Those odds came out after Oscar nominations were released on Thursday morning in Los Angeles.
Coming in right behind the favorite is "Emilia Perez" at +340 odds to win Best Picture.
Among the other notable favorites are box-office sensation "Wicked," which has +1600 odds. The Sci-Fi sequel "Dune: Part Two" is also up there at +2300.
This article breaks down the betting odds for the 2025 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and more.
The 97th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will be broadcast on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
New to betting? A minus (-) sign indicates the amount you need to risk to win $100, whereas a plus (+) sign shows the money you'd win for every $100 bet.
Example: "Wicked" is +1600 to win Best Picture, which means you would net a $1,600 profit on a $100 bet if it wins. Learn more here.
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Oscar Odds, Nominations Update: January 23, 2025
While our last update to the Oscar odds immediately after the Golden Globes showed significant movement throughout the market, that update also included far more potential nominees than were actually named.
Now that we've narrowed down the list to 10 Best Picture nominees and 5 nominees in every other category, the odds have come together from there.
The other aspect of the odds for Best Picture and other categories that has changed in the two-plus weeks since the Golden Globes is that several other branches with significant ties to Academy Awards success have announced their nominees, including the Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, and more.
Best Picture Odds
Odds via FanDuel Ontario
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Brutalist | -140 | 58.33% |
| Emilia Perez | +340 | 22.73% |
| Anora | +430 | 18.87% |
| Conclave | +500 | 16.67% |
| Wicked | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Dune: Part Two | +2300 | 4.17% |
| The Nickel Boys | +2300 | 4.17% |
| A Complete Unknown | +2300 | 4.17% |
| The Substance | +3100 | 3.13% |
| I'm Still Here | +5000 | 1.96% |
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"The Brutalist" has been favored to win Best Picture in the entire lead-up to Oscar nominations, and it remains right there, staying at -140 after the field was narrowed down to 10 nominees on Thursday morning.
The battle for which film is most likely to pull off the upset has been intriguing, as "Emilia Perez," "Anora," and "Conclave" have jumped around in the 2-4 range throughout the last month or so.
Currently, oddsmakers make "Emilia Perez" the second favorite at +340 odds to win Best Picture. "Anora" is +430, while "Conclave" is +500.
Box office sensation "Wicked" has +1600 odds to win the Oscar for Best Picture.
The biggest surprises among the nominations were "The Substance" and "I'm Still Here." Prior to nominations being announced, "The Substance" was behind four other films that didn't wind up with a nomination.
"I'm Still Here" was an even bigger surprise, as it was not among the 30 lowest odds to win the award.
Best Director Odds
Odds via BetMGM UK
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | -700 | 87.5% |
| Sean Baker (Anora) | +550 | 15.38% |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +1000 | 9.09% |
| James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +2500 | 3.85% |
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Once nominations for Best Director were announced, Brady Corbet jumped to a strong favorite to win the award for "The Brutalist."
On Wednesday night, Corbet was already a -230 favorite to win the award. On Thursday morning, those odds moved to -700.
The second favorite is Sean Baker for "Anora" at +550 odds to win Best Director.
Two surprises came out of the nominations. James Mangold was +4100 to win Best Director prior to the nominations, behind nine other directors who didn't end up nominated.
Similarly, Coralie Fargeat had the ninth-best odds, but wound up with a nomination.
Best Actor Odds
Odds via BetMGM UK
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | -200 | 66.67% |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | +200 | 33.33% |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | +650 | 13.33% |
| Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | +2500 | 3.85% |
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There weren't a ton of surprises in the Best Actor category, and Adrien Brody remains the favorite for "The Brutalist" at -200. He was -240 on Wednesday.
Timothee Chalamet stands as his biggest likely challenger for "A Complete Unknown," and his odds remained unchanged at +200.
The biggest surprise came not in name, but in film. Sebastian Stan won the Best Actor award at the Golden Globes for "A Different Man." On Thursday, he was nominated for the Best Actor Oscar, but for "The Apprentice," instead.
Best Actress Odds
Odds via BetMGM UK
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | -150 | 60% |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | +130 | 43.48% |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +400 | 20% |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +1400 | 6.67% |
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The rise of Demi Moore continues. Three weeks ago, Moore was +380 to win the Oscar for Best Actress. The day after the Golden Globes, she had moved to +140 odds.
After nominations were announced on Thursday, she is listed as a -150 favorite.
Moore's rise has come at the expense of Mikey Madison of "Anora," who is now the second favorite at +130 odds.
Cynthia Erivo was nominated for Best Actress and is a +1400 underdog. If she were to win, she would become the youngest person ever to have an EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony award).
Best Supporting Actor Odds
Odds via BetMGM UK
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) | -1000 | 90.91% |
| Yura Borisov (Anora) | +800 | 11.11% |
| Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) | +2000 | 4.76% |
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Kieran Culkin's odds to win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars for his role in "A Real Pain" continued to improve after nominations were announced on Thursday.
Culkin had been a favorite since the start of awards season, but moved from -390 to a strong -1000.
Culkin's biggest challenger ahead of the announcement was seen to be Guy Pearce for "The Brutalist." Prior to Thursday, Pearce was +470, while Yura Borisov was +1000 for "Anora."
Now, Borisov is +800, while Pearce has dropped to +1000.
Best Supporting Actress Odds
Odds via BetMGM UK
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) | -1000 | 90.91% |
| Ariana Grande (Wicked) | +500 | 16.67% |
| Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) | +2000 | 4.76% |
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Similar to Culkin, Zoe Saldana kept her momentum rolling to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for her performance in "Emilia Perez" after the nominations were announced on Thursday.
Saldana was -470 on Wednesday, and like Culkin moved to 1000 odds to win Best Supporting Actress on Thursday morning.
Saldana's biggest challenger is Ariana Grande for "Wicked," who is +500 to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress.
The biggest nomination surprise in this category was Monica Barbaro for "A Complete Unknown," as she had the 11th best odds to win the award prior to nominations.
Other Oscar Nominees
Best Adapted Screenplay
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Emilia Perez
- The Nickel Boys
- Sing Sing
Best Original Screenplay
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Real Pain
- September 5
- The Substance
Best Animated Feature Film
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir of a Snail
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- The Wild Robot
Best Animated Short Film
- Beautiful Men
- In the Shadow of the Cypress
- Magic Candies
- Wander to Wonder
- Yuck!
Best Cinematography
- The Brutalist
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Perez
- Maria
- Nosferatu
Best Costume Design
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
Best Film Editing
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Emilia Perez
- Wicked
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- A Different Man
- Emilia Perez
- Nosferatu
- The Substance
- Wicked
Best Live-Action Short Film
- A Lien
- Anuja
- I'm Not a Robot
- The Last Ranger
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Best Original Score
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Emilia Perez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
Best Original Song
- "El Mal" from Emilia Perez
- "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight
- "Like a Bird" from Sing Sing
- "Mi Camino" from Emilia Perez
- "Never Too Late" from Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Documentary Feature Film
- Black Box Diaries
- No Other Land
- Porcelain War
- Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
- Sugarcane
Best Documentary Short Film
- Death by Numbers
- I Am Ready, Warden
- Incident
- Instruments of a Beating Heart
- The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Best International Feature Film
- I'm Still Here
- The Girl With the Needle
- Emilia Perez
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig
- Flow
Best Production Design
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
Best Sound
- A Complete Unknown
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Perez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
Best Visual Effects
- Alien: Romulus
- Better Man
- Dune: Part Two
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Wicked
Oscars FAQ
When are the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for March 2, 2025.
Where are the 2025 Oscars held?
The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who won at the 2024 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan's film "Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and most overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography, and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in "Poor Things," while Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "The Holdovers."
Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?
"Wicked" is nominated for Best Picture and has +1600 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress
Where can I bet on the Oscars?
Kalshi allows users in all 50 states to wager on the Oscars via contract trading. Learn more here and sign up for a $10 new user bonus below.
Betting markets for the Oscars are also made available at sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel in select states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Kansas, and Louisiana. It is also available in Ontario, Canada.
