Who is favored to win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? Current odds list Demi Moore of The Substance as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Actress at -250.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Actress race at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Best Actress Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | -250 | 71.43% |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | +185 | 35.09% |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +5000 | 1.96% |
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Demi Moore of The Substance is the betting favorite to win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars at -250 odds.
Next up on the odds board is Mikey Madison at +185 odds to win Best Actress, followed by Fernanda Torres of I'm Still Here at +1000.
Other nominees include Karla Sofia Gascon of Emilia Perez and Cynthia Erivo of Wicked. Erivo is 35-1 and Gascon is 50-1 to win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars.
Best Actress Predictions
Chris Raybon: Demi Moore is in the lead here for The Substance, and Mikey Madison is next for Anora, but I've sprinkled a little on Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) at long odds because when it comes to Oscar night, surprises abound.
If you're feeling lucky, this could be the one to watch. Torres, at around +1600, is undervalued when you factor in the Gold Derby predictions.
I think Moore wins, but Torres stands enough of a chance to warrant a small bet. The Academy is clearly enamored with both her and her film with it getting a surprising Best Picture nomination, so if they want to reward her, this could be the place to do it.
Pick: Small bet on Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
Collin Whitchurch: Like in the Best Actor category, this has been a race primarily between two people throughout awards season, but unlike in that race there is a stealth third player looking to play spoiler.
Demi Moore (The Substance) is a deserving favorite, a position she gained early in awards season with a win at the Golden Globes.
Mikey Madison (Anora) is who Moore overtook in the odds market, but she remained very much in contention throughout, and solidified her position as a solid second favorite with a win at the BAFTAs.
Moore again won at the SAG, and is the most likely winner here.
The longshot spoiler with a legitimate shot is Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here). She is the second Brazilian to be nominated for Best Actress – the first was her mother.
Torres received a shocking win at the Golden Globes (alongside Moore; the Golden Globes separate the awards into two different categories), and the Academy as a whole is clearly enamored with her film, as it wasn’t even on the radar for Best Picture before receiving a surprising nomination.
More than likely, this is a situation akin to last year when Sandra Hüller was viewed by many as a potential upset candidate in a race that featured Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. Of course, we don’t know how close Hüller actually came to winning, only that she didn’t.
After Torres’s Golden Globes win, she vaulted from +2800 all the way to +430. A lack of wins since that early January ceremony has settled her back in the 14-1 range, but it’s important to note that Torres did not contend directly with Moore and Madison in any race at a major ceremony.
That could be viewed as a negative, as it means Torres wasn’t nominated in several of those shows, but it also means we don’t know how voters would rank her against the two favorites.
I have a strong position on Moore at Kalshi, having bought in a little above 50%, and I remain pretty firm that she should and very likely will win this award. Along with it being a standout performance, it would also be something of a lifetime achievement award for a veteran actress – now in her early 60s – who went from high-profile roles in the late 1980s and 1990s to obscurity, and is now back in the limelight.
Academy voters love that kind of narrative, and it would be enough to put her over the top even if the precursor data didn’t exist.
The Torres uncertainty has me sprinkling a little on her at long odds, too, but my primary position is on Moore.
Bets: Demi Moore (The Substance) -240 at FanDuel | Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) +1400 at FanDuel
Predicted Winner: Moore
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2025 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 2, 2025.
Where are the 2025 Oscars held?
The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Substance, The Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, and I'm Still Here.
Who is favored to win at the 2025 Oscars?
Anora is the favorite for Best Picture, Sean Baker (Anora) is the favorite for Best Director, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is favored to win Best Actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) is favored to win Best Actress, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2024 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan's film "Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in "Poor Things," while Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "The Holdovers."
Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?
"Wicked" is nominated for Best Picture and has +5000 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress.
More 2025 Oscars Coverage
- Complete Academy Awards Betting Odds
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Picture Odds, Predictions
- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup & Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
- Best Production Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
- Best Visual Effects Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Cinematography Odds, Predictions
- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Live Action Short Odds, Predictions
