Who is favored to win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars? Current odds list Sean Baker of Anora as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Director at -230.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Director race at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Best Director Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Baker (Anora) | -230 | 69.70% |
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | +160 | 38.46% |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +2000 | 4.76% |
| James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +2500 | 3.85% |
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Sean Baker of Anora is the betting favorite to win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars at -230 odds.
Next up on the odds board is Brady Corbet of The Brutalist at +160 odds to win Best Director.
Other nominees for Best Director include Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown, and Coralie Fargeat for The Substance.
Audiard is +2000 to win Best Director, while Mangold and Fargeat are both 25-1 to win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars.
Best Director Predictions
Chris Raybon: Sean Baker (Anora) is backed by 91% of the experts and editors on Gold Derby, which would imply -400 odds of him winning. Yet, he's sitting around -165. No nominee with more than 83% of the backing has lost in more than a decade.
Baker also has the technical chops as he's nominated in the Best Film Editing category, something you don't normally see from a Best Director nominee. (He's also nominated in the screenplay category.)
There's also the possibility that voters split up their votes to honor more films, and if they go with Conclave for Best Picture, they could go with Anora here, particularly since Conclave isn't nominated in this category.
Pick: Sean Baker (Anora)
Collin Whitchurch: This is an Anora vs. The Brutalist battle, with Conclave sitting on the sidelines after the surprising snub of Edward Berger when nominations were announced.
Like with Best Picture, the narrative here is a big favorite being overtaken during the precursor awards circuit.
The Brutalist director Brady Corbet was as short as -700 to win this award in late January, but when the DGA gave its top prize to Anora director Sean Baker, the odds flipped, and we now enter Sunday night with oddsmakers and prognosticators alike expecting a Baker coronation.
It’s easy to see why. In the last 21 years, the DGA and Academy have aligned on the Best Director winner 19 times. The two times it didn’t were in 2020, when the Academy picked Bong Joon-ho over the DGA’s Sam Mendes, and in 2013, when the Academy went with Ang Lee and the DGA’s Ben Affleck didn’t even receive an Oscar nomination.
A closer inspection does reveal some warts on Baker’s resume, however. It’s true that Baker won at the DGA, which is a really big deal, but it was also his only Best Director win among the major televised pre-Oscars circuit. Only two of those 19 Academy/DGA agreements can say the same: Tom Hooper for A King’s Speech and Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman.
Corbet, meanwhile, won at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA, as well as less-known organizations such as the IPA Satellite Awards and the Venice Film Festival, where he won the Silver Lion.
Zauzmer has this race tight, with Baker at 35.7% and Corbet at 30.4%. Another Oscars model I trust, by Cole Curtiss, actually has Corbet favored at 55.7%.
That’s enough for me to pair my Brutalist Best Picture bet with another upset here. Unlike in Best Picture, though, there’s no hedging with the favorite.
Bet: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) +150 at BetMGM
Predicted Winner: Corbet
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2025 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 2, 2025.
Where are the 2025 Oscars held?
The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Substance, The Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, and I'm Still Here.
Who is favored to win at the 2025 Oscars?
Anora is the favorite for Best Picture, Sean Baker (Anora) is the favorite for Best Director, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is favored to win Best Actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) is favored to win Best Actress, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2024 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan's film "Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in "Poor Things," while Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "The Holdovers."
Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?
"Wicked" is nominated for Best Picture and has +5000 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress.
More 2025 Oscars Coverage
- Complete Academy Awards Betting Odds
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Picture Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup & Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
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- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
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