Who is favored to win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Current odds list Anora as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay at -250.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Original Screenplay race at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Best Original Screenplay Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | -250 | 71.43% |
| The Substance | +300 | 25% |
| A Real Pain | +450 | 18.18% |
| The Brutalist | +1400 | 6.67% |
| September 5 | +4000 | 2.44% |
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Anora is the betting favorite to win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars at -250 odds.
Next up on the odds board is The Substance at +300 odds to win Best Original Screenplay, followed by A Real Pain at +450.
Other nominees include The Brutalist and September 5. The Brutalist is +1400 to win Best Original Screenplay, while September 5 is 40-1 to win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars.
Best Original Screenplay Predictions
Chris Raybon: Anora is again the favorite, but I've got to take a stab at another long shot.
A Real Pain is around +600 to win this award, but based on Gold Derby experts and editors, it should be in the +170 to +270 range. So, +600 is massive value.
This is a small bet, though, and I'm not holding my breath. Gold Derby still has Anora in the top spot.
There have been only two upsets in this category, both of which came from Best Picture winners that wound up being massively undervalued (Green Book and Everything Everywhere All At Once). Not only is Anora the Best Picture favorite, but A Real Pain isn't nominated at all, and only has one other nomination.
That one nomination — a shoo-in win by Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor — opens up the possibility that voters are satisfied with honoring the film that way.
Pick: Small bet on A Real Pain
Collin Whitchurch: The last time the winner in this category was a film that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture was 20 years ago – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind by the venerable Charlie Kaufman.
That means the odds are stacked against A Real Pain in a three-horse race between it, Anora, and The Substance.
Anora is the favorite largely based on its win at the Writer’s Guild Awards, but its position is precarious. Screenwriting precursors are tough to gauge because different organizations have different standards that impact eligibility. Thus, The Substance was not eligible to compete against Anora at the WGA.
A Real Pain’s surprising win at the BAFTAs put it in position to pull off this upset, and Anora also has head-to-head losses to The Substance (at the Critics Choice Awards) and A Real Pain (at the aforementioned BAFTAs).
The latter is more predictive when it comes to Oscars success, and considering neither of the models I rely on have Anora’s chances above 50%, I’m looking at an upset here.
Bet: A Real Pain +550 at FanDuel
Predicted Winner: A Real Pain
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2025 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 2, 2025.
Where are the 2025 Oscars held?
The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Substance, The Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, and I'm Still Here.
Who is favored to win at the 2025 Oscars?
Anora is the favorite for Best Picture, Sean Baker (Anora) is the favorite for Best Director, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is favored to win Best Actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) is favored to win Best Actress, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2024 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan's film "Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in "Poor Things," while Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "The Holdovers."
Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?
"Wicked" is nominated for Best Picture and has +5000 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress.
More 2025 Oscars Coverage
- Complete Academy Awards Betting Odds
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
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- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
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- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
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