Who is favored to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Current odds list Anora as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Picture at -200.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Picture race at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Best Picture Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | -200 | 66.67% |
| Conclave | +225 | 30.77% |
| The Brutalist | +600 | 14.29% |
| A Complete Unknown | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Wicked | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Emilia Perez | +6500 | 1.52% |
| The Substance | +8000 | 1.23% |
| I'm Still Here | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Dune: Part Two | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Nickel Boys | +15000 | 0.66% |
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Anora is the betting favorite to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars at -200 odds.
Next up on the odds board is Conclave at +225 odds to win Best Picture, followed by The Brutalist at +600.
Seven other films are nominated for Best Picture, all at 40-1 or longer.
A Complete Unknown is +3500, and Wicked is 50-1 to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars.
Emilia Perez is 65-1 to win Best Picture, while I'm Still Here is 100-1 to win Best Picture.
Finally, Dune: Part Two, and The Substance are all 100-1 long-shots to win Best Picture, while Nickel Boys is 150-1.
Best Picture Predictions
Chris Raybon: Anora is the favorite and the consensus favorite is on a four-year winning streak in Best Picture, but before that, the film that was second on the odds board won five in a row. So, there's been an upset here in five of the past nine years.
Anora should be the favorite, but I think Conclave has a fighting change, especially with The Brutalist also factoring in and the Oscars doing preferential ballot.
I'm taking Conclave as the value play to pull off another Best Picture upset.
Pick: Conclave
Collin Whitchurch:Anora or Conclave?
This Best Picture race is fascinating, more so than we’ve seen in a number of years.
Both films have trends that favor it, so something’s got to give.
Consider this:
- 12 of the past 15 films to win the top prize at the Critics Choice Awards, Producers Guild Awards and Directors Guild Awards have won Best Picture. That favors Anora.
- Just one film to win at the PGA, DGA and Writers Guild Awards has lost Best Picture (Brokeback Mountain). This, again, favors Anora.
- Seven of the past nine films to win the top prize at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards have won Best Picture. That favors Conclave.
And that’s not even mentioning The Brutalist, which is significantly more live than your typical third favorite entering the Oscars.
The Brutalist was actually the strong favorite entering the new year, and a win at the Golden Globes made it the favorite when Oscar nominations were announced in late January.
The Brutalist’s path now, however, is that of the underdog. There’s precedent, however. Academy Awards fans will never forget the famous moment in 2017 when on-stage confusion ended with Moonlight being named Best Picture over La La Land. What people might not remember is where the odds stood entering that night.
Moonlight’s only significant televised award that season was at the Golden Globes. Every other major precursor ceremony went with La La Land (except SAG, which went to Hidden Figures).
Entering Sunday night, La La Land was around a -600 favorite, while Moonlight was +500. At Gold Derby, 35 of 37 experts and editors picked La La Land to win Best Picture.
It was arguably the biggest upset in Academy Awards history.
To be clear, everything here points toward an Anora coronation. It’s foolish to pick a long shot, and while Best Picture is a category more likely than most to see an upset, if you want to go that route you may prefer to go with my colleague, Chris Raybon, who is betting Conclave.
That’s fair. None of the math points toward The Brutalist. But there’s precedent here, and anecdotally The Brutalist is the kind of film the Academy voting base often favors: big, technical achievements on an epic scale. Likely wins in Best Cinematography, Best Sound and a decent shot at a few others helps its case, too.
This year’s ceremony is one of the least certain we’ve seen in years. Ben Zauzmer, whose Oscar Math has become a staple at the Hollywood Reporter, has Anora favored at just 52% to win, and has 10 other categories where the favorite is sitting around 50% or lower.
As a bettor whose only goal is to turn a profit, I’ll be wagering on Anora, which is -200 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, but also taking a stab at The Brutalist at +650 (both FanDuel and BetMGM).
I’ve also invested in The Brutalist at Kalshi at 13% and will be watching it throughout the ceremony. If Anora gets upset in any of the early technical categories in which it’s expected to win, and/or The Brutalist scores some big wins, we could see that market move and be able to consider a cashout to guarantee profits.
Bets: Anora -200 at DraftKings/FanDuel/BetMGM | The Brutalist +650 at FanDuel/BetMGM
Predicted Winner: Anora
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2025 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 2, 2025.
Where are the 2025 Oscars held?
The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Substance, The Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, and I'm Still Here.
Who is favored to win at the 2025 Oscars?
Anora is the favorite for Best Picture, Sean Baker (Anora) is the favorite for Best Director, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is favored to win Best Actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) is favored to win Best Actress, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2024 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan's film "Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in "Poor Things," while Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "The Holdovers."
Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?
"Wicked" is nominated for Best Picture and has +5000 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress.
More 2025 Oscars Coverage
- Complete Academy Awards Betting Odds
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup & Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
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- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
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- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
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