Who is favored to win at the 2025 Oscars? "Anora" is the betting favorite at -240 odds to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
Coming in right behind is "The Brutalist" at +380 odds to win Best Picture.
Other Best Picture contenders include box office sensation "Wicked", which is +5000 to win Best Picture, and blockbuster sci-fi sequel "Dune: Part Two", which is +8000 to win Best Picture.
This article breaks down the betting odds for every category at the 2025 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and more.
The 97th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. They will be broadcast on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
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2025 Oscar Odds (Updated Monday, February 17)
- The British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) took place on Sunday. Great Britain's equivalent of the Oscars often influences the betting market as there are occasionally parallels between the winners there and those the Academy hands out.
- "Conclave" took home the top prize, Best Film. Third on the odds board for Best Picture, it saw its odds go from +1600 to +750, still behind favored "Anora" and "The Brutalist".
- "The Brutalist" won both Best Director and Best Actor. In the former category, Brady Corbet moved into a virtual coin-flip with "Anora" director Sean Baker (-125 to -105). Adrien Brody strengthened his lead in a head-to-head matchup with Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown). Brody is now -230 while Chalamet is +230.
- Mikey Madison upset Demi Moore in the Best Actress race. As such, Moore moved from -200 to -170, while Madison went from +170 to +130.
All odds via FanDuel Ontario and as of February 17.
Best Picture Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | -240 | 70.59% |
| The Brutalist | +380 | 20.83% |
| Conclave | +750 | 11.76% |
| A Complete Unknown | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Emilia Perez | +3400 | 2.86% |
| Wicked | +5000 | 1.96% |
| The Substance | +6500 | 1.52% |
| The Nickel Boys | +8000 | 1.23% |
| Dune: Part Two | +8000 | 1.23% |
| I'm Still Here | +8000 | 1.23% |
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Conclave inserted itself into the Best Picture conversation with its win at the BAFTAs on Sunday, moving from a distant third at +1600 to a more interesting +750.
That movement came mostly at the expense of more distant nominees, as the two top two contenders, Anora and The Brutalist, went from -250 to -240, and +300 to +380, respectively.
The BAFTAs have a complicated history with predicting Oscars success, and in the Best Picture category specifically, the two ceremonies have aligned just 10 times in the last 24 years.
Anora's ascent up the odds board came a weekend earlier, when it swept the top prizes at the Critics Choice Awards, Producers Guild Awards and Directors Guild Awards, leading it to leapfrog the formerly presumptive favorite, The Brutalist.
Since the Critics Choice Awards came into existence in 1995, there have been 15 occasions where the same film won the top prize at these three award shows. Twelve of those 15 movies also won Best Picture at the Oscars, with the exceptions being La La Land, Brokeback Mountain and Saving Private Ryan.
The PGA in particular has been the best predictor of Oscars success, aligning picks 17 times in the last 24 years, including each of the last four.
At Kalshi, Anora is trading at 67% and The Brutalist is all the way down at 18% as of this writing. Conclave is at 13%, which is up from 4.6% prior to the BAFTAs.
Best Director Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Baker (Anora) | -125 | 55.56% |
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | -105 | 51.52% |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +1900 | 5% |
| James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +2900 | 3.33% |
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This is the most interesting and closest race among the Big Six Oscars categories.
Brady Corbet had a stranglehold on this category until the Directors Guild Awards. That award went to Anora's Sean Baker, and he rocketed up to become the favorite.
This makes sense. The DGA and Academy have only awarded the Best Director prize to different people three times since 2000: 2019 (Oscar to Bong Joon-ho, DGA to Sam Mendes), 2012 (Oscar to Ang Lee, DGA to Ben Affleck) and 2000 (Oscar to Steven Soderbergh, DGA to Ang Lee).
At the BAFTAs on Sunday, the award went to Corbet, and as such the odds tightened to as close as they've been yet. Following Baker's DGA win, he was a -155 favorite, with Corbet dropping to +125.
Now, they're both at minus money, with Baker at -125 and Corbet at -105.
It's nearly as close at Kalshi, where Baker is trading at 55% as of this writing, with Corbet at 43%.
Best Actor Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | -230 | 69.7% |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | +230 | 30.30% |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | +3400 | 2.86% |
| Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | +4200 | 2.33% |
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Adrien Brody's Best Actor win at the BAFTAs further strengthened his case to take home the prize at the Academy Awards.
He moved from -17o to -230 with the win. Meanwhile, his only true competition, Timothee Chalamet, went from +160 to +230.
Ralph Fiennes is third on the odds board for Conclave, and his odds took a hit as well. The BAFTAs commonly award British actors and he was the only one in the Best Actor category. The fact that Brody won over him spoke volumes to odds makers, who dropped him from +1100 to +1400.
It's important to note that the biggest precursor ceremony for acting awards is still yet to come, as the Screen Actors Guild will hold its awards ceremony this Sunday.
At Kalshi, Brody is trading at 75% while Chalamet is at 22% and Fiennes is down to 3%.
Best Actress Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | -170 | 62.96% |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | +130 | 43.48% |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +2900 | 3.33% |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +3300 | 2.94% |
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This two-woman race tightened up a bit after the BAFTAs.
Mikey Madison pulled off the surprising win there, inching her closer to the favored Demi Moore on the odds board. Madison went from +170 to +130, while Moore moved from -200 to -170.
As a reminder, Madison actually entered awards season as the favorite, and was at -180 as recently as January 4th.
After Moore won the top prize at the Golden Globes and a number of other smaller ceremonies, her momentum has taken off.
Many have thought Fernanda Torres to be a stealthy upset contender after she burst into the conversation with a win or her own at the Golden Globes, but after the BAFTAs her odds have moved from +750 all the way down to +1400.
It's important to note that the biggest precursor ceremony for acting awards is still yet to come, as the Screen Actors Guild will hold its awards ceremony this Sunday.
At Kalshi as of this writing, Moore is trading at 57% and Madison at 39%, while Torres is down at 7%.
Best Supporting Actor Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) | -750 | 88.24% |
| Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) | +850 | 10.53% |
| Yura Borisov (Anora) | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) | +2600 | 3.7% |
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There was no movement in this category after the BAFTAs, with Kieran Culkin winning as expected.
The deck shuffled a bit below him a week ago, as Edward Norton has become his most likely challenger at +850.
He switched places with Yura Borisov of "Anora", who was once the second favorite and is now third at +1400.
It's important to note that the biggest precursor ceremony for acting awards is still yet to come, as the Screen Actors Guild will hold its awards ceremony this Sunday.
At Kalshi, Culkin is trading at 88%, while both Norton and Jeremy Strong are trading at 4%.
Best Supporting Actress Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) | -650 | 86.67% |
| Ariana Grande (Wicked) | +500 | 16.67% |
| Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) | +2900 | 3.33% |
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There was no movement in this category after the BAFTAs, with Zoe Saldana winning as expected.
This has remained steady for a couple of weeks, although Saldana was once as strong as a -1000 favorite.
Her biggest challenger remains Ariana Grande for "Wicked", and her odds have held steady at +500.
It's important to note that the biggest precursor ceremony for acting awards is still yet to come, as the Screen Actors Guild will hold its awards ceremony this Sunday.
At Kalshi, Saldana is trading at 83%, while Grande is at 13%. No other actress is trading above 1%.
Best Adapted Screenplay Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Conclave | -600 | 85.71% |
| Emilia Perez | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Nickel Boys | +1100 | 8.33% |
| A Complete Unknown | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Sing Sing | +1800 | 5.26% |
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Conclave has held firm as the favorite in this category since markets opened on the smaller Oscars categories a few weeks ago, and its win in this category at the BAFTAs has helped its case.
It's frequently difficult to use precursor awards to predict the screenplay categories for the Oscars, as different organizations have different standards for what qualifies as either "adapted" or "original."
As an example this year, Nickel Boys won the Best Adapted Screenplay award at the Writers Guild Award. However, Conclave was not eligible for the prize at the WGA (nor were Emilia Perez, Sing Sing), which is why oddsmakers have held firm on Conclave at -600 and Nickel Boys at +1100 despite the result.
At Kalshi, Conclave is trading at 87%, while Nickel Boys is at 8% and A Complete Unknown is at 4%.
Best Original Screenplay Odds for the 2025 Oscars
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | -370 | 78.72% |
| The Substance | +600 | 14.29% |
| A Real Pain | +750 | 11.76% |
| The Brutalist | +1000 | 9.09% |
| September 5 | +2300 | 4.17% |
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Anora's position as favorite hasn't moved much since these markets opened, but a little bit of BAFTA surprise did shuffle the deck chairs somewhat.
Anora is still a -370 favorite, which is down just slightly from the -400 it was at prior to the BAFTAs.
The second favorite, The Substance, has actually moved in the opposite direction, from +500 to +600, and that's because Jesse Eisenberg's A Real Pain was the surprise winner in Great Britain.
A Real Pain was +1600 and fourth on the odds board prior to the show, but is now +750 and the third favorite, leapfrogging The Brutalist, which went from +850 to +1000.
It's frequently difficult to use precursor awards to predict the screenplay categories for the Oscars, as different organizations have different standards for what qualifies as either "adapted" or "original."
This year, Anora was eligible for the Best Original Screenplay award at the Writers Guild Awards. And it won the prize, which is why it remains the favorite here. However, three of the other four nominees (The Substance, The Brutalist, and September 5) were ineligible at the WGA.
At Kalshi, Anora is trading at 65%, The Substance is at 26%, and A Real Pain is at 10%.
Best Costume Design Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked | -850 | 89.47% |
| Conclave | +750 | 11.76% |
| Nosferatu | +1600 | 5.88% |
| A Complete Unknown | +2900 | 3.33% |
| Gladiator II | +3400 | 2.86% |
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Substance | -370 | 78.72% |
| Wicked | +340 | 22.73% |
| Nosferatu | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Emilia Perez | +2900 | 3.33% |
| A Different Man | +3400 | 2.86% |
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Best Production Design Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked | -280 | 73.68% |
| The Brutalist | +470 | 17.54% |
| Conclave | +500 | 16.67% |
| Nosferatu | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Dune: Part Two | +2200 | 4.35% |
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Best Original Song Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| El Mal (Emilia Perez) | -280 | 73.68% |
| Mi Camino (Emilia Perez) | +500 | 16.67% |
| The Journey (Six Triple Eight) | +750 | 11.76% |
| Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late) | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Like a Bird (Sing Sing) | +1400 | 6.67% |
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Best Visual Effects Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Dune: Part Two | -700 | 87.5% |
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | +600 | 14.29% |
| Wicked | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Better Man | +2100 | 4.55% |
| Alien: Romulus | +2300 | 4.17% |
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Best Animated Feature Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Wild Robot | -180 | 64.29% |
| Flow | +160 | 38.46% |
| Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Inside Out 2 | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Memoir of a Snail | +2900 | 3.33% |
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Best Cinematography Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Brutalist | -270 | 72.97% |
| Dune: Part Two | +470 | 17.54% |
| Nosferatu | +500 | 16.67% |
| Emilia Perez | +3400 | 2.86 |
| Maria | +4000 | 2.44% |
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Best International Feature Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Emilia Perez | -210 | 67.74% |
| I'm Still Here | +105 | 48.78% |
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Flow | +2100 | 4.55% |
| The Girl with the Needle | +4100 | 2.38% |
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Best Film Editing Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Conclave | +145 | 40.82% |
| The Brutalist | +200 | 33.33% |
| Anora | +220 | 31.25% |
| Emilia Perez | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Wicked | +1900 | 5% |
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Best Original Score Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Brutalist | -290 | 74.36% |
| Conclave | +500 | 16.67% |
| The Wild Robot | +750 | 11.76% |
| Emilia Perez | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Wicked | +1600 | 5.88% |
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Best Sound Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Dune: Part Two | -220 | 68.75% |
| Wicked | +370 | 21.28% |
| A Complete Unknown | +750 | 11.76% |
| The Wild Robot | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Emilia Perez | +1400 | 6.67% |
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Best Documentary Feature Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| No Other Land | -250 | 71.43% |
| Sugarcane | +430 | 18.87% |
| Porcelain War | +900 | 10% |
| Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Black Box Diaries | +1600 | 5.88% |
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Best Animated Short Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Beautiful Man | +115 | 46.51% |
| Wander to Wonder | +115 | 46.51% |
| Yuck! | +1000 | 9.09% |
| In the Shadow of the Cypress | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Magic Candies | +1400 | 6.67% |
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Best Documentary Short Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| I Am Ready, Warden | -105 | 51.22% |
| Incident | +250 | 28.57% |
| Death by Numbers | +300 | 25% |
| The Only Girl in the Orchestra | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Instruments of a Beating Heart | +1100 | 8.33% |
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Best Live Action Short Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent | -140 | 58.33% |
| Anuja | +230 | 30.3% |
| I'm Not a Robot | +600 | 14.29% |
| A Lien | +850 | 10.53% |
| The Last Ranger | +1800 | 5.26% |
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Oscars FAQ
When are the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for March 2, 2025.
Where are the 2025 Oscars held?
The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Substance, The Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, and I'm Still Here.
Who won at the 2024 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan's film "Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in "Poor Things," while Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "The Holdovers."
Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?
"Wicked" is nominated for Best Picture and has +5000 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress
Where can I bet on the Oscars?
Kalshi allows users in all 50 states to wager on the Oscars via contract trading. Learn more here and sign up for a $10 new user bonus below.
Betting markets for the Oscars are also made available at sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel in select states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Kansas and Louisiana. It is also available in Ontario, Canada.
