The 97th annual Oscars are set for tonight in Hollywood, and I'm here to break down my favorite bets for this year's ceremony.
The Academy Awards will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles at 8 p.m. ET on ABC. It will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
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Here are my 2025 Oscars predictions and betting picks, including Best Picture, Best Actor and more.
Academy Awards 2025 Predictions
Best Picture
Click here for complete Best Picture betting odds
Anora is the favorite and the consensus favorite is on a four-year winning streak in Best Picture, but before that, the film that was second on the odds board won five in a row. So, there's been an upset here in five of the past nine years.
Anora should be the favorite, but I think Conclave has a fighting change, especially with The Brutalist also factoring in and the Oscars doing preferential ballot.
I'm taking Conclave as the value play to pull off another Best Picture upset.
Pick: Conclave
Best Director
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Sean Baker (Anora) is backed by 91% of the experts and editors on Gold Derby, which would imply -400 odds of him winning. Yet, he's sitting around -165. No nominee with more than 83% of the backing has lost in more than a decade.
Baker also has the technical chops as he's nominated in the Best Film Editing category, something you don't normally see from a Best Director nominee. (He's also nominated in the screenplay category.)
There's also the possibility that voters split up their votes to honor more films, and if they go with Conclave for Best Picture, they could go with Anora here, particularly since Conclave isn't nominated in this category.
Pick: Sean Baker (Anora)
Best Actor
Click here for complete Best Actor betting odds
Adrien Brody is leading this race for his performance in The Brutalist. However, Timothee Chalamet at +150 is not far behind for A Complete Unknown.
His Screen Actors Guild win put him in the conversation to become the youngest ever winner in this category — an honor currently held by Brody.
Brody's Oscar win came in 2003 for The Pianist, which fittingly came after he lost out at the SAG. Currently, the SAG winner matching the Oscar winner is on a three-year streak, which is good news for Chalamet.
However, an actor winning only the SAG (as is the case for Chalamet) and then winning at the Oscars is tough to do. This is a tough race to call and one where it's worth betting on a surprise underdog.
It's also worth noting that the SAG Awards were held later this year (two weeks before the Oscars) and the controversy over The Brutalist using AI to modify some of the accents in the film could hurt Brody's chances.
Pick: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Best Actress
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Demi Moore is in the lead here for The Substance, and Mikey Madison is next for Anora, but I've sprinkled a little on Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) at long odds because when it comes to Oscar night, surprises abound.
If you're feeling lucky, this could be the one to watch. Torres, at around +1600, is undervalued when you factor in the Gold Derby predictions.
I think Moore wins, but Torres stands enough of a chance to warrant a small bet. The Academy is clearly enamored with both her and her film with it getting a surprising Best Picture nomination, so if they want to reward her, this could be the place to do it.
Pick: Small bet on Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
Best Original Screenplay
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Anora is again the favorite, but I've got to take a stab at another long shot.
A Real Pain is around +600 to win this award, but based on Gold Derby experts and editors, it should be in the +170 to +270 range. So, +600 is massive value.
This is a small bet, though, and I'm not holding my breath. Gold Derby still has Anora in the top spot.
There have been only two upsets in this category, both of which came from Best Picture winners that wound up being massively undervalued (Green Book and Everything Everywhere All At Once). Not only is Anora the Best Picture favorite, but A Real Pain isn't nominated at all, and only has one other nomination.
That one nomination — a shoo-in win by Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor — opens up the possibility that voters are satisfied with honoring the film that way.
Pick: Small bet on A Real Pain
Best Sound
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This is my favorite value bet of the show, one where the favorite doesn't align with the expert consensus.
Dune: Part Two is the favorite in this category at around -400, but Wicked actually leads among Gold Derby experts at 47%, and is also at 30% of editors and 31% among the top-24 users.
All of that makes it much more likely to win than the +600 odds its being offered at imply.
A Complete Unknown is also close to hedge territory if its odds get to +400 or better.
Pick: Wicked
Best International Film
Click here for complete Best International Feature betting odds
Gold Derby has never been wrong in this category, going a perfect 13-for-13 when it comes to its predicted winner aligning with who wins at the Academy Awards.
In this year's case, we have two films competing against each other that were also nominated for Best Picture — I'm Still Here and Emilia Pérez.
Gold Derby has I'm Still Here at 63.3% among experts, 60% among editors and 86.7% among top-24 users. That makes this an easy call with I'm Still Here only being a slight favorite.
Pick: I'm Still Here
Best Film Editing
Click here for complete Best Film Editing betting odds
This seems like another category where the voting could be influenced by where votes lie elsewhere. Sean Baker is nominated, but if he wins Best Director, as I predict, voters might want to honor a different film and editor in this category.
Anora failed to win here at the Critics Choice Awards, as did the favored Conclave, but the latter did win the BAFTA, which has correctly predicted four of the past five winners and 12 of the past 17.
Conclave is also at 67% of experts and 90% of editors at Gold Derby, and both of those have predicted six of the past seven winners.
It's not a sure thing, but there's still value on the favorite here.
Pick: Conclave
Best Live Action Short
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The short film categories are a ton of fun to bet because you can usually find value based on what experts and editors think.
In this case, the betting favorite, A Lien (-110), doesn't align with Gold Derby.
That honor goes to The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent at +200.
Pick: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Best Animated Short
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Once again, we're looking at an example of a favorite not aligning with Gold Derby experts and editors.
The favorite here is Wander to Wonder, a significant favorite in the -250 range. However, Beautiful Men is the favorite among Gold Derby experts at 38% and top-24 users at 50%.
Pick: Beautiful Men
Best Documentary Short
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There's some slight value here on one of the favorites, I Am Ready, Warden, considering it's sitting at around 60% on Gold Derby and can be had at even money on the betting market.
Pick: I Am Ready, Warden
