Best Actor Nominees & Odds
Odds via FanDuel and as of March 12
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Fraser (The Whale) | -170 | 62.96% |
| Austin Butler (Elvis) | +130 | 43.48% |
| Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) | +1100 | 8.33% |
| Paul Mescal (Aftersun) | +4100 | 2.38% |
| Bill Nighy (Living) | +8000 | 1.23% |
Chris Raybon: Sportsbooks are listing Brendan Fraser (-175) as the favorite, but over 60% of Gold Derby experts and editors are on Austin Butler (+125).
Butler won at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, which have each predicted the Oscar winner in 10 of the past 11 years and carry more weight than wins by Fraser at the SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards, which have hit rates of 9-of-11 and 7-of-11, respectively, over that span.
The betting market appears to be overrating Fraser's odds due to recency bias stemming from his SAG win, which took place the latest of the four major acting precursors.
Pick: Austin Butler +125 (to -155).
Collin Wilson:There is no shortage of items to be discussed when it comes to The Whale. Brendan Fraser delivers a performance so powerful that I personally ran to the futures market in the summer of 2022 to get plus-money on the former Encino Man.
His visual appearance is stunning, but not nearly as amazing as the voice he projects behind a man who has been battling mental health issues since the death of his partner. Obesity and mental health issues are a stigma that most content verticals want to avoid, but The Whale dives straight in and Fraser hits a home run in a specific binge scene.
Despite the personal love I have for the character, there is negativity around the industry for the movie itself. Fraser wore a suit, giving critics the argument that another actor should have been chosen for the role. While that may deter votes off Fraser, there is no denying the power of Austin Butler on stage as Elvis.
The performance of the 31-year-old Anaheim native was flawless, complemented by the brave move to have Butler be the artist behind the music in the Elvis film. Heavy praise continues to roll in for Elvis on this note after Rami Malek won this award two years ago with a lip-syncing performance of Freddie Mercury.
The template for winning Best Actor generally go by the rule of a British actor in a British film with a British production company. This rule of thumb cashed a +700 ticket for Action Network readers on Anthony Hopkins two years ago.
Colin Farrell and The Banshees of Inisherin miss those marks, leaving the experts and editors at the Gold Derby as our marker for the victor of this specific award.
The experts and editors align on 56% of the vote for Butler to win Best Actor, as Fraser and Farrell split the remainder of the votes. That is enough to give value to Butler on any number that has plus-value in the market.
While this is one of the larger positions I have on the entire 95th Academy Awards betting card, my stop price on investment is -125.
