Best Actress Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) | -175 | 63.64% |
| Emma Stone (Poor Things) | +125 | 44.44% |
| Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Carey Mulligan (Maestro) | +6600 | 1.49% |
| Anette Bening (Nyad) | +6600 | 1.49% |
Odds via bet365 and as of March 9. Check out the latest bet365 bonus code offer before placing your bets on the 2024 Academy Awards.
The Best Actress race at the 2024 Academy Awards is very clearly a two-person race.
Lily Gladstone is ahead at the moment for her breakout role in Killers of the Flower Moon. At -225 odds, a $100 bet on Gladstone would net winners $44.44. Those odds have gotten shorter over the course of the last few weeks, as its the biggest lead Gladstone has had in the market to date.
Right behind Gladstone is Emma Stone for Poor Things, as she is a little lower than even-money at +162. A $100 bet on Stone would net bettors $162, should she come away with the trophy.
Also seeing her odds shorten in recent weeks is Sandra Huller for Anatomy of a Fall. You used to be able to get Huller in the 20-1 or 30-1 range, but she's shortened down to +1200. A $100 bet on Huller would potentially net $1,200.
Best Actress Predictions
Collin Wilson: This category can be wild, including surprises like Olivia Colman in 2018, the Cynthia Erivo steam of 2019 and Michelle Yeoh as an underdog to Cate Blanchett last year.
This is also the fourth-straight year the SAG and BAFTA disagreed, as the SAG went with Lily Gladstone while the BAFTAs went with Emma Stone. Gladstone is the first Native American nominated for this award. She was not nominated for a BAFTA after cleaning up at plenty of other awards shows (SAG). Stone took home the BAFTA two weeks ago and dominated Gold Derby User Votes. Stone is neck-and-neck with Gladstone in projected odds for Experts and Editors, but do voters go with making history in Gladstone winning or Stone winning her second award?
Sandra Hüller is a tough wager when looking at the pecking order of the Experts/Editors votes at Gold Derby, although this number could exceed 50/1 by showtime. Gladstone fell to third in just one of 40 ballots. Stone fell to third on three of 40 ballots.
Hüller is a bet you make at the size of a Waffle House meal, Stone is a full unit for me.
Bets: Emma Stone (+125) | Small sprinkle on Sandra Hüller (+1200)
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Chris Raybon: Despite Lily Gladstone winning at SAG, Emma Stone winning at BAFTA and Critics Choice, and both winning at the Golden Globes, Sandra Hüller is still the pick of 8% of Gold Derby experts and 8% of Gold Derby editors.
Gladstone is vulnerable due to screen time: While the last 10 Best Actress recipients appeared on screen for an average of one hour, 15 minutes, 52 seconds (or 65.0% of their films), Gladstone appeared on screen in Killers of the Flower Moon for just 56 minutes, 13 seconds, or 27.3% of the film’s total run time.
Stone is vulnerable because she lost the most recent precursor (SAG). She also already has an Oscar for acting, and 75% of the last 12 recipients in this category were first-time winners. This is Hüller's first nomination, though it’s worth noting that she also starred in a supporting role in another Best Picture nominee (The Zone of Interest), which could also help her cause.
There is recent precedent for a longshot winning in this category — twice in the last five years, in fact. In 2021, Frances McDormand won for Nomadland despite a measly 2% of Gold Derby editor and expert votes, and in 2019, Olivia Colman won for The Favorite despite being picked by exactly zero of the Gold Derby editors and experts.
Bet: Sandra Hüller (+3500) | Bet to +900
For complete Oscars odds for every category, click here.
How to Watch the 2024 Academy Awards
The 2024 Academy Awards are scheduled for Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast by ABC. They will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, and Jimmy Kimmel will host.
