Best Actress Prediction for 2020 Oscars
Collin Wilson: Cynthia Erivo +2500 (down to +500)
While every expert at Gold Derby had Glenn Close projected as the 2019 winner, it was Olivia Colman who took home the award — another reminder that the Academy is becoming more unpredictable as nominee and voter base sizes continue to grow.
While Renée Zellweger is sweeping SAG and the Golden Globes, the big question is if an underdog can win this category. The answer is absolutely.
Per Oscarmetrics, two trends have been constant with the award winners in Best Actress. First, play a historical character. Both Zellweger and Cynthia Erivo accomplish that in their respective roles.
The second has to deal with age.
The Best Actress award has seen a large majority of it's winners go to the 35 and under crowd along with the 60-plus. Marlee Matlin, Jennifer Lawrence and Audrey Hepburn all won at an early age while Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep and Jessica Tandy won post 60.
Cynthia Erivo of Harriet just turned 33, indicating a 23% win probability. Six former winners were 33 years old.
Zellweger is trying to overcome the steepest of odds in a category that dates back to 1927. The actress is 50 years old, which is in the range for the lowest win probability for the category. No person has ever won the award between the ages of 50 to 53, while only two have won the award between the ages of 50 through 59.
Best Actress Betting Odds for 2020 Oscars
- Renee Zellweger (Judy) -2500
- Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) +1000
- Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) +2000
- Charlize Theron (Bombshell) +2500
- Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) +3300
