Best Adapted Screenplay Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| American Fiction | -275 | 73.33% |
| Oppenheimer | +250 | 28.57% |
| Barbie | +600 | 14.29% |
| Poor Things | +4000 | 2.44% |
| The Zone of Interest | +8000 | 1.23% |
Odds via bet365 and as of March 9. Check out the latest bet365 bonus code offer before placing your bets on the 2024 Academy Awards.
The favorite for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars is American Fiction at -188 odds. That means a $100 bet on American Fiction would turn $53.19 in profit.
Coming in right behind American Fiction on the odds board is the Best Picture favorite, Oppenheimer, at +200. A $100 wager on Oppenheimer to win Best Adapted Screenplay would net $200.
The third contender for Best Adapted Screenplay is Barbie, which was the highest-grossing film of 2023. At +500 odds, a $100 wager on Barbie would net $500 in profit, should it come out victorious on Sunday night.
The two longest shots for Best Adapted Screenplay are Poor Things and The Zone of Interest, which are at +3300 and +6600, respectively.
Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction
Chris Raybon:American Fiction is a tenuous favorite, with only 56% of Gold Derby experts selecting it to win, with Oppenheimer getting 28% of the vote and Barbie getting 16%.
What makes this category ripe for an upset is the fact that The Writers Guild Awards won’t take place until after the Oscars (it was delayed because of the WGA strike), and the fact that Barbie is nominated in the Original Screenplay category in many of the precursors, so many of American Fiction’s wins have not come head-to-head against Oppenheimer, but not Barbie.
Bet: Barbie +600 (Bet to +200)
For complete Oscars odds for every category, click here.
How to Watch the 2024 Academy Awards
The 2024 Academy Awards are scheduled for Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast by ABC. They will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, and Jimmy Kimmel will host.
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