Updated Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| CODA | -230 | 69.70% |
| The Power of the Dog | +220 | 31.25% |
| The Lost Daughter | +500 | 16.67% |
| Drive My Car | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Dune | +2400 | 4% |
| Oscar odds for Best Adapted Screenplay nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26. | ||
Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions
Collin Whitchurch: The WGAs and BAFTAs were in agreement here, both awarding their top prizes to CODA. Thus, it's a little surprising to see that film with only a slim lead in the betting odds.
The WGAs and BAFTAs have agreed on Best Adapted Screenplay nine times since 2000, and the only time they incorrectly predicted the Academy Award was in 2009, when Precious beat out Up In The Air (considered one of the bigger Academy Awards upsets in recent history).
You could bet on another upset here, but I don't see the value in any of the films trailing CODA. I would bet that win to -250.
Pick: CODA -140
Deserves to win: Drive My Car
Collin Wilson: There are no long-term trends for this category, which does not always win the award for Best Picture. Last year, The Father defeated Nomadland while previous winners such as Jojo Rabbit and BlackKkKlansman were not close to winning Best Picture. The trend over recent years is more and more non-fiction films being nominated and winning.
The leaders on the odds board are two movies that are also fighting for Best Picture. With odds flipping between CODA and The Power of the Dog, the Netflix-produced The Lost Daughter has captured plenty of critics attention with first- and second-place votes.
With over 11% of those critics choosing The Lost Daughter, the correct odds are closer to +770. As the top two movies duke it out, consider throwing a low-sized bet on the movie that has captured the attention of the voting base.
Pick: The Lost Daughter +800
More 2022 Oscar Predictions
- A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
- Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby's experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
- 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.
