Update: Mank won the Academy Award for Best Cinematography.
Best Cinematography Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Nomadland | -400 | 80% |
| Mank | +350 | 22.2% |
| News of the World | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Judas and the Black Messiah | +1700 | 5.6% |
| The Trial of the Chicago 7 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Odds as of April 24 and via DraftKings. | ||
Best Cinematography Predictions
Nomadland -400
Collin Whitchurch: Unlike most of the other guild awards, the American Society of Cinematographers doesn't have the best track record in terms of selecting the same award winner as the Academy.
The ASC has honored the top feature film cinematographer in each of the last 34 times, and only 15 times has it awarded that prize to the same film that won the Best Cinematography Award at the Academy Awards. It's been a bit better of late, however, matching winners in five of the last seven years, including last year with 1917.
The BAFTAs, however, have been better, matching winners in each of the last eight years. When the BAFTAs and ASC disagree in 2016 (Lion vs. La La Land) and 2018 (Cold War s. Roma) the Academy went with the BAFTA's choice (La La Land and Roma).
This year, we've got another disagreement. The BAFTAs gave their top prize to Nomadland, while the ASC honored Mank. Going back 20 years, the only times the ASC and BAFTAs disagreed and the Academy went with the ASC's choice were in 2007 (There Will Be Blood over No Country for Old Men) and 2010 (Inception over True Grit).
The odds fall within that line of thinking, and there's not a lot of value in Mank at +350, nor any of the longer shots.
