Best Costume Design Nominee Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Cruella | -390 | 79.59% |
| Dune | +380 | 20.83% |
| West Side Story | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Cyrano | +2400 | 4.00% |
| Nightmare Alley | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Oscar odds for Best Picture nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26. | ||
Best Costume Design Predictions
Collin Whitchurch: The BAFTAs dominate this category from a predictability standpoint, hitting 12 times since 2000.
The Costume Designer’s Guild has broken their top awards up into three genres since 2005: Contemporary, Period and Sci-Fi/Fantasy. Period has hit with the most frequently over that span with eight wins, while Sci-Fi/Fantasy has hit five times and Contemporary has hit zero.
All of this aligns to give Cruella a rare win over powerhouse Dune.
Cruella won the CDG’s Period award and also at the BAFTAs. Dune won the Sci-Fi/Fantasy award at the CDGs, while Coming 2 America — not nominated here — won the Contemporary prize.
Given that more people probably saw Dune than Cruella, I’m giving it an outside shot at pulling the upset here, but don’t like it enough at +320 to throw down any money on it. Similarly, Cruella’s juice is too high for me to eat it given the possibility that Dune wins. Cruella is the pick, but I won’t be wagering any money here.
Pick: Cruella
Chris Raybon: Over 90% of Gold Derby experts and editors are picking Cruella to win. Its listed odds imply only an 82% chance, so there’s some value here relative to the listed odds, but -450 isn’t worth the trouble.
Pick: Pass
More 2022 Oscar Predictions
- A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
- Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby's experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
- 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.
