Updated Best Documentary Feature Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Summer of Soul | -310 | 75.61% |
| Flee | +330 | 23.26% |
| Attica | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Ascension | +3200 | 3.03% |
| Writing With Fire | +3500 | 2.78% |
Best Documentary Feature Predictions
Collin Whitchurch: Finally, I get to discuss one of my favorite films of 2021.
Flee is, remarkably, nominated in this category as well as Best Animated Feature and Best International Feature. Yes, it somehow fits into all three categories.
I’m not going to explain to you how that’s possible, just go see it.
Unfortunately, it has little chance of bringing home a gold statue in any of those three categories, but Best Documentary Feature represents its best chance.
Since the BAFTAs began awarding a documentary feature regularly back in 2011, it has dominated in terms of predicting Academy Awards success. Last year, it correctly predicted My Octopus Teacher, which was the fifth correct prediction in the last 10 years. The IDAs have been awarding a top prize here for a lot longer, but since the BAFTAs introduced the category, the IDAs only have three correct predictions.
This year, the BAFTAs awarded their top prize to Summer of Soul, while the IDAs went with Flee.
The odds are clearly stacked against our plucky underdog, but +340 presents good value for a very legitimate upset. We don’t have to go back all that far to find an instance when the Academy went with the IDA choice over the BAFTAs. It was in 2016, when OJ: Made in America bested 13th.
Flee has no shot at either Best Animated Feature nor Best International Feature, but I believe the Academy is willing to recognize its brilliance and will do so here, siding with the IDA. I’ll take a shot at Flee at +340 and bet it to +300.
Pick: Flee +340
More 2022 Oscar Predictions
- A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
- Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby's experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
- 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.
