Updated Best Film Editing Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Dune | -105 | 51.22% |
| King Richard | +200 | 33.33% |
| The Power of the Dog | +300 | 25% |
| tick, tick … BOOM! | +1300 | 7.14% |
| Don't Look Up | +2100 | 4.55% |
| Oscar odds for Best Film Editing nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26. | ||
Best Film Editing Predictions
Chris Raybon: Precursor season made a mess of this category, with two films that aren't even nominated — West Side Story and No Time to Die — winning at Critics Choice and BAFTA. At the ACE Eddie Awards, King Richard won in the drama category while tick, tick…BOOM! took home the prize in the comedy category.
As such, every contender is getting at least one Gold Derby vote. Dune (53.2% weighted probability at Gold Derby), King Richard (24.6%), and The Power of the Dog (1.8%) are all overvalued, leaving tick, tick…BOOM! (13.0%) and Don't Look Up (7.4%) as juicy live longshot dogs.
Pick: tick, tick…BOOM! +1000 (to +670), Don't Look Up +2000 (to +1250)
Collin Whitchurch: This is the most interesting technical category, but sadly will not be awarded live during the telecast thanks to the Academy's asinine decision to give out eight awards the hour before the live show in an effort to streamline the broadcast (and piss off actual film lovers).
The broadcast will reportedly still include clips of these winners, but it's important to keep this stupid decision in mind when figuring out when to bet. Given that these awards will be handed out an hour before the broadcast, the winners will undoubtedly leak around then, so sportsbooks will likely close betting on them earlier than you would otherwise expect.
The other categories that are impacted by this decision are: Documentary short, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design, animated short, live action short and sound.
This category is intriguing based on the editing awards given out prior to this Sunday. The American Cinema Editors "Eddie" Awards split their top prize similarly to the Golden Globes into Drama and Comedy/Musical. Historically, the Drama winner has been the best predictor of Oscars wins, with 12 since 2000. However, it has been wrong the last two years, and this year gave that prize to King Richard, which checks in with the second-lowest odds here.
The BAFTAs have been more successful than the ACE Drama category of late, correctly predicting Sound of Metal a year ago and Ford v Ferrari in 2019. However, its award this year went to No Time To Die, which wasn't nominated.
Meanwhile, Dune — the betting favorite at the Academy Awards — didn't win a single award at the ACE Eddies or the BAFTAs.
The other major ACE Eddie category, for Comedy/Musical, hasn't had any success in predicting the Oscars in recent memory. Since 2000, the only time that win predicted an Academy Award was way back in 2002 with Chicago.
However, it has a real stealth contender this year with its nominee: tick, tick … BOOM! And the Lin-Manuel Miranda-directed biopic could legitimately pull off an upset here.
Dune is likely to clean up the technical categories, as you see from the odds here and elsewhere on the list. However, this is our one legitimate shot at an upset, so I think there's value in both King Richard at +200 and tick, tick … BOOM! at an insane +1300. I'll have a bit of money on both.
Picks: King Richard +200; tick, tick … BOOM! +1300
Deserves to win: Don't Look Up
