Best Makeup & Hairstyling Prediction for 2020 Oscars
Collin Wilson: Joker +550 (down to +200)
For those of you unaware, there is a Makeup & Hairstyling Guild Awards. This year saw Bombshell win 'Contemporary Makeup' and Joker win 'Period/Character Makeup.'
The past six Oscar winners have aligned with MUAHS winners, but historical trends point to an advantage for Joker.
Per Oscarmetrics — a book that examines whether statistical trends can be used to predict Academy Award winners �� the Best Makeup and Hairstyling award tends to go to the film with more overall nominations than the average total nominations of its competitors. Simply put, the more a movie shows up in other categories the better chance of winning here.
The reasoning for this has nothing to do with makeup or hair. Many of the academy voters tend to choose their favorite movie across the board. Other voters choose to honor a film with an less distinguished category. Since the categories creation almost 40 years ago, 70% of the winners have had the most cumulative nominations.
Bombshell, Judy and Maleficent have a combined six nominations. Joker and 1917 are in the double digits, well ahead of the 5.4 average nomination size. Joker is the only film in this group nominated for Best Costume Design, an indicator of the winner more than 50% of the time.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling Odds for 2020 Oscars
- Bombshell -560
- Joker +325
- Judy +1700
- 1917 +4000
- Maleficent: Mistress of Evil +4000
