Updated Best Original Screenplay Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Belfast | -120 | 54.55% |
| Licorice Pizza | +115 | 46.51% |
| Don't Look Up | +600 | 14.29% |
| The Worst Person in the World | +850 | 10.53% |
| King Richard | +2900 | 3.33% |
| Oscar odds for Best Original Screenplay nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26. | ||
Best Original Screenplay Predictions
Chris Raybon: Licorice Pizza's screenplay was entertaining, but it was ultimately aimless…not to mention a little weird. Some people even found it offensive. It won at the BAFTA, but lost to Belfast at Critics Choice and Golden Globes, and to Don't Look Up at WGA.
Belfast, meanwhile, was at one point considered a legit contender for Best Picture — until more people saw it, presumably. Don't get me wrong, Belfast was fine — it just isn't Best Picture material.
But that fine-ness may be enough for Kenneth Branagh to take home the Oscar as the safer choice, and as a consolation prize of sorts for his likely loss in the directing category.
Belfast is the favorite at Gold Derby, and the books have yet to adjust. In fact, this is the only category (save for Best Picture at certain books) in which the Gold Derby frontrunner diverges from the sportsbook frontrunner.
Pick: Belfast +120 (to -115)
Collin Whitchurch: Some more intrigue was stirred up here this past Sunday, when the WGA handed out its Best Original Screenplay award to Don't Look Up, Adam McKay's contentious satire.
That means our two most predictive award shows are split, as the BAFTAs went with the favored Licorice Pizza.
Those two award shows have been pretty split in predictability dating back to 2000, with the WGAs being correct 14 times and the BAFTAs being correct 13 times. Eight times they've agreed and been right, once they have agreed and been wrong (Bridman over Grand Budapest Hotel in 2014), and once they have disagreed and still bee wrong (Green Book over Eighth Grade and The Favourite in 2018).
When the two disagree and one is right, the WGA holds a slight edge, correctly predicting the Academy Awards six times to the BAFTAs' five. The last time that happened was in 2017, when the BAFTAs went with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri while the Oscar went to WGA choice, Get Out.
Belfast, interestingly enough, remains in the second position on the oddsboard despite not being honored by either institution.
So the value, as you might have gathered, is with Don't Look Up. After its WGA win, I wouldn't be surprised to see some steam come its way ahead of this Sunday, but I would bet it to +200.
Pick: Don't Look Up +410
Deserves to win: Don't Look Up
