Updated Best Original Song Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No Time to Die – Billie Eilish (No Time to Die) | -250 | 71.43% |
| Dos Oruguitas – Lin Manuel Miranda (Encanto) | +220 | 31.25% |
| Be Alive – Beyonce & DIXSON (King Richard) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Down to Joy – Van Morrison (Belfast) | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Somehow You Do – Diane Warren (Four Good Days) | +1800 | 5.26% |
Best Original Song Predictions
Collin Whitchurch: I’m highlighting this category mostly to highlight an Oscar favorite: Diane Warren.
Warren is an extreme underdog this year at +1800, but that should come as no shock to her. She has been nominated 12 other times in this category and has zero wins.
You might not know Warren by name, but she’s one of the most prolific songwriters Hollywood has ever seen. Her credits include “Because You Loved Me” (Celine Dion), “How Do I Live” (LeAnn Rimes), “I Don’t Want To Miss A Thing” (Aerosmith) and more. You’ve undoubtedly belted a Warren-written song at a karaoke bar or in your car and not realized it was by her.
So here she is again, a 13th Academy Award nomination and another likely defeat. There is some value on Dos Oruguitas here, just because of the familiarity with Encanto and Hollywood’s love for Lin-Manuel Miranda, so I’ll take a stab there at +220 … and a very small amount on Diane Warren, just because I’ll be rooting for her.
Pick: Dos Oruguitas – Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) +220
Chris Raybon: Encanto done messed up by not nominating “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” but 46% of editors and 35% of experts at Gold Derby are still predicting it to pull the upset with “Dos Oruguitas.”
Betting against Billie Eilish at an awards show is not for the faint of heart (not to mention betting against Beyonce!), but the odds for “Dos Oruguitas” should be closer to +145. If it wins, Lin Manuel Miranda will become the 17th person in history to achieve a competitive EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony).
Pick: Dos Oruguitas +225 (to +145)
More 2022 Oscar Predictions
- A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
- Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby's experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
- 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.
