Best Picture Prediction for 2020 Oscars
Collin Wilson: Joker +800; Once Upon A Time In Hollywood +1200
This is the most unpredictable category by far, as three of the past 15 years have produced the biggest upsets.
Moonlight is considered the biggest upset of all time after coming up empty for Best Picture at BAFTA, SAG, Directors Guild and Writers Guild. Plenty of people point to the increase in number of nominees and the additional diversity in the voting base.
As a gambler, we couldn't be happier that long shots are getting to the window.
The rules for beating the average nomination size apply to this category, as Annie Hall is the only Best Picture with a score of -1.6. The average nomination score for 2020 is 7.66, knocking out every contender except The Irishman, 1917, Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. While 1917 is my personal favorite, I would not wager on them with the current odds.
1917 is attempting to be the first Best Picture without a nomination in Best Acting or Best Film Editing since 1934, the birth of the editing category. If voters are not into 1917, the lack of dialogue between two main characters in a straight-forward story without a nomination in editing would be the reason.
Parasite may also have a tough path as a foreign-language film. No picture has ever won Best Foreign Film and Best Picture, something Parasite will obviously have to defeat. The movie also has a very low number of total nominations, something that would eclipse Annie Hall's mark of -1.6.
As my colleague Chris Raybon pointed out on the Action Network Podcast, there are voters who refuse to watch movies with subtitles.
The voting process for Best Picture is very important from a betting standpoint: A film must have a required number of first place votes, then garner enough overall votes to win. An Academy Award voter ranks the films for Best Picture and does not simply check a box.
A movie can simply garner a few first-place votes then sweep second- or third-place votes on the majority of ballots to win Best Picture.
This is truly a 'movie I hated the least' voting scenario. Both Joker and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood meet the grand slam nominations for writing, directing, acting and editing. Neither film will be downgraded for a lack of dialogue, editing or as a foreign film.
Parasite and 1917 leave lasting memories and should be a two horse race for Best Picture, but because of the voting process, this is a four-horse race. I will take any of the four horses that offer the best odds.
Best Picture Betting Odds for 2020 Oscars
- 1917 -167
- Parasite +225
- Once Upon A Time in Hollywood +900
- Joker +1200
- The Irishman +6600
- Jojo Rabbit +8000
- Marriage Story +10000
- Little Women +15000
- Ford v Ferrari +25000
