Updated Best Picture Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| CODA | -135 | 57.45% |
| The Power of the Dog | -105 | 51.22% |
| Belfast | +1600 | 5.88% |
| King Richard | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Dune | +2800 | 3.45% |
| West Side Story | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Licorice Pizza | +5500 | 1.79% |
| Don't Look Up | +5500 | 1.79% |
| Drive My Car | +6500 | 1.52% |
| Nightmare Alley | +8000 | 1.23% |
| Oscar odds for Best Picture nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26. | ||
Best Picture Predictions
Collin Wilson: The Academy recently increased the nomination size from five to 10, but in the list of this years candidates it comes down to just two movies. The Power of the Dog spent a few months with odds over -200 to win Best Picture until mid-March, when CODA steamed from a 5/1 underdog. There is no doubt in the eyes of the critics that every ballot will feature these two movies in the top spot.
The content from The Power of the Dog will generate plenty of negative and positive emotional reaction depending on the voter. There is no doubt this is a powerhouse movie from an acting, editing and cinematography point of view. While Cumberbatch did not win the BAFTA for Best Actor, he is the most dominating presence of any character on the Oscars board.
The question is whether the social issues regarding the movie are enough to turn some of the voting base off of the movie. Actor Sam Elliott did not have kind words for the Western drama, while director Jane Campion had repercussions for comments about Venus and Serena Williams. Are those issues enough to turn a portion of the voting base against the Netflix film and cast third-place votes?
CODA is a tough sell, as Best Picture is generally won by films that have nominees in Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Film Editing. CODA is not nominated in any of the categories that historically play a factor in winning Best Picture. This movie is following in the same footsteps as 1917, a movie that was inspiring and left audiences in tears with no nominations in acting categories.
If a wager was made early on The Power of the Dog. then a certain hedge with CODA can be made now. There may not be much room left to bet on CODA at odds that are moving by the day. Steam is expected to continue on CODA as the sentimental favorite, but The Power of the Dog is by far the more complex and outstanding picture.
Remember, the results are sealed and no leaks ever come of the Academy Awards. Look to let a wonderful movie in CODA take all the steam before getting The Power of the Dog at plus-money on Sunday afternoon when the red carpet is rolled out.
Pick: The Power of the Dog -125 or Better (wait for CODA steam Sunday)
Collin Whitchurch: This race has completely turned on its head in the six weeks since nominations were announced.
The Power of the Dog was the favorite coming in, and while it still is, the most likely film to unseat it has changed drastically.
This race was initially lining up to be The Power of the Dog against Belfast, with West Side Story in the mix as well. Since then, CODA has steamed forward from its initial opening odds in the +2000 to +3000 range, taking home the top prizes awarded by both the Screen Actors Guild and the Producers Guild of America.
That last prize, which was announced just last Sunday, bumped it even further from +400 to where we see it today.
This sets up an incredibly intriguing showdown between the two award shows that have the best history of predicting the Best Picture winner. CODA won at the PGA and Power of the Dog won at the Directors Guild of America. Since 2000, both of those organizations have matched up with the Academy Awards' Best Picture 14 times, proving more predictable than the SAGs, BAFTAs or Golden Globes.
The PGA and DGA have both been wrong a few times, most recently in 2019, when both organizations awarded 1917 and the Academy went with Parasite. However, each of the last two times the organizations disagreed, the PGA has been correct: In 2018, when the PGA picked Green Book and the DGA picked Roma. And in 2013, when the PGA went with 12 Years a Slave and the DGA went with Gravity.
(That excludes years in which neither organization correctly predicted the Academy Awards — the only example of that since 2000 was in 2015, when Spotlight beat out PGA's The Big Short and DGA's The Revenant).
All of this is to say that we're setting up for yet another unpredictable finish this Sunday, but it's impossible to ignore CODA's steam. It's unfortunate to have missed out on predicting which of the stealth contenders would steam over the last six weeks (my guess was Licorice Pizza), but now that we're here, it's time to get on board.
To opine a bit from a film perspective, this award should go to Drive My Car. The field of nominees is somewhat underwhelming this year, ranging from "pretty good" to "meh," with the exception of Ryusuke Hamaguchi's haunting drama. CODA would be my second choice, and would be a satisfying winner.
CODA at any numbers with a plus in front of it still provides solid value.
Pick: CODA +105
Chris Raybon: How did we get here? After The Power of the Dog was the Best Picture frontrunner for much of awards season, CODA stormed ahead thanks to a Best Picture win at the Producer's Guild Awards and a Best Ensemble Cast win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
There's a case to be made for The Power of the Dog: It has Best Picture wins at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes, and it has 12 nominations to CODA's three. Still, Gold Derby's industry insiders know all of this, and yet 78.6% of their experts and 61.5% of their editors are picking CODA to take home the Academy's top prize.
Given those probabilities, its odds should be closer to -230. That value is too good to pass up.
Pick: CODA +100 (to -180)
