Best Picture Nominees & Odds
Odds via FanDuel and as of March 12
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Everything Everywhere All At Once | -1200 | 92.31% |
| The Banshees of Inisherin | +1600 | 5.88% |
| All Quiet on the Western Front | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Top Gun Maverick | +2900 | 3.33% |
| The Fabelmans | +4200 | 2.33% |
| Tar | +6500 | 1.52% |
| Elvis | +8000 | 1.23% |
| Avatar: The Way of Water | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Triangle of Sadness | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Women Talking | +10000 | 0.99% |
Collin Wilson: With no disrespect to the entire field of nomination for Best Picture, none are perched as the powerhouse of Everything Everywhere All at Once. The movie checks all of the boxes when looking for a Best Picture, with nominations in directing, editing and acting.
The total number of nominations has always been the first indicator of a film’s chances to win, with 11 making this feature a heavyweight. The victories have also created a pile of hardware with 10 victories between the Golden Globes, Independent Spirit Awards and the BAFTAs.
The biggest indicator that this film will win best picture are the votes of the experts and editors of the Gold Derby. Only three in a total of 34 did not vote Everything Everywhere All at Once as the best picture winner. Of the few that did not pick the film as the winner, the movie was listed as second on their respective ballot. Keep in mind the voting system assigns points by the ranking on the ballot, and if Everything Everywhere All at Once is not at the very top of the voting pool entries, it most certainly is listed second.
With the number of experts and editors on the movie as the outright winner, the true odds on the film are -3200. There will be steam on “All Quiet on the Western Front” because of the win at the BAFTAs, but the British award winner for Best Picture has never been an indicator for the Academy Awards.
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Chris Raybon: Gold Derby gives Everything Everywhere All At Once (-1400) a 93% chance to win, but the value has already been bet out of it. The only other film receiving votes is BAFTA winner All Quiet on the Western Front (+1100), but the Academy and BAFTA have disagreed on Best Picture in seven of the past eight years, with the only exception being Nomadland in 2021.
