Update: Daniel Kaluuya won Best Director for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah.
Best Supporting Actor Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) | -2500 | 96.2% |
| Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) | +1700 | 5.6% |
| Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Odds as of April 24 and via DraftKings. | ||
Best Supporting Actor Predictions
Daniel Kaluuya -2500
Collin Whitchurch: The supporting actor category is strangely underwhelming this year, although the favorite will be a deserving winner. There's no drama here as Daniel Kaluuya has swept through award season, winning this award at the SAGs, BAFTAs and Golden Globes.
The former two award shows have been the best at predicting the winner over the last two decades. The SAG winner has won the Academy Awards in 13 of the last 20 years, with the most recent miss coming in 2015 when Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) won at the SAGs over Oscar winner Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies). The BAFTAs have also predicted 13 of the last 20 — its last miss was in 2016, when it picked Dev Patel (Lion) over Oscar winner Mahershala Ali (Moonlight).
Kaluuya will win this year, and none of the underdogs — including second-favorites Sasha Baron Cohen or Paul Raci — have a reasonable chance.
Daniel Kaluuya -2500
Collin Wilson: The category of Best Supporting Actor has a simple projection curve: The older the actor, the better the odds are of winning the award. That would point gamblers to Raci at 73 over Cohen at 49 years of age. Stanfield is in his 20s and is pulling up the rear for the powerhouse of the group Kaluuya, who most consumers remember for his Best Actor award in 2018 for Get Out.
When older nominees win the award it is considered a lifetime achievement for an entire body of work. At 72 in 2006, Alan Arkin was the life of the movie Little Miss Sunshine while Christopher Plummer's six decade career took home this award in 2018 at the age of 82.
The issue with Raci is that there is not a true body of work to be awarded, as his best credit may be "Bad Guy" in a 1993 Bruce Lee biography.
Lay it with Kaluuya and take him all the Oscar pools.
