Update: Youn Yuh-jung won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress for her performance in Minari.
Best Supporting Actress Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) | -500 | 83.3% |
| Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) | +375 | 21.1% |
| Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Olivia Colman (The Father) | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Amanda Seyfried (Mank) | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Odds as of April 24 and via DraftKings. | ||
Best Supporting Actress Predictions
Maria Bakalova +375
Collin Whitchurch: This started out as a two-headed race between Youn Yuh-jung and Maria Bakalova until the odds slowly but steadily moved in Yuh-jung's direction, and we're very likely going to see the 73-year-old — who is the first Korean actress ever nominated for an Academy Award — take home the top prize on Sunday night.
A win for the 24-year-old Bakalova would be strange but not entirely undeserved, although it's tough to find a lot of data pointing to the upset here. Both the SAGs and BAFTAs honored Yuh-jung, and their predictive power — 15-of-20 and 14-of-20, respectively — is tough to ignore.
The Glenn Close nomination is yet another reminder that the Academy has somehow failed to honor the legend despite her being nominated now eight times with her bid for the utterly forgettable monstrosity that was Hillbilly Elegy. It was tough to argue with Olivia Colman (The Favourite) beating Close (The Wife) for Best Actress two years ago, and now Close is a longshot along with the woman who beat her — although Colman's performance in the insanely underrated The Father is worth consideration.
Bakalova's odds are within range to pull the trigger on a small longshot bet. I'd prefer it around +450 or longer (it's tracking in that direction as it was +300 a few weeks ago), but will probably throw down a small wager and keep an eye on the movement as we get closer to showtime. Yuh-jung is probably winning it, though.
Youn Yuh-jung -500
Collin Wilson: Per OSCARmetrics, the higher the billing in the film credits, the better percentage chance of winning this category.
An actress can makeup for screen time with a powerful performance, such as Hattie McDaniel billed eighth from Gone with the Wind. This puts Yuh-jung at a serious disadvantage with a billing of fifth for Minari, while each of the other nominees are billed second for their respective films.
This is the part where I tell you that I am emotionally connected to this movie and this specific role of Grandma. Minari was filmed in Tulsa, Oklahoma where I currently reside, but the movie is based in Northwest Arkansas where I grew up. Yes, "Chicken Sexing" is a real form of employment in my neck of the woods.
More importantly, the grandmother portrayed by Yuh-jung is much like my own between watching professional wrestling and drinking piss on accident.
This is my favorite film of the year, and Yuh-jung is a big reason for that. She has been in the film industry since 1971 and has won the BAFTA, Screen Actors Guild and multiple other awards for this role.
Swallow the juice and pray the billing of fifth does not doom this excellent performance.
