Updated Best Supporting Actress Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) | -1600 | 94.12% |
| Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) | +600 | 14.29% |
| Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Judi Dench (Belfast) | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actress nominees via DraftKings and as of March 26 | ||
Best Supporting Actress Predictions
Collin Whitchurch: Best Supporting Actress is historically where we've seen some of the biggest upsets in history among the major awards.
There was Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny in 1993, Juliette Binoche for The English Patient in 1997, 11-year-old Anna Paquin for The Piano in 1994 and Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock in 2001 — just to name a few.
More recently, it was a bit of a surprise to see Regina King beat both Emily Blunt and Rachel Weisz in 2018, as Blunt took home the SAG award and Weisz won at the BAFTAs. However, those two award shows still have a solid enough track record at predicting what the Academy will do that it makes sense to see Ariana DeBose as the runaway favorite.
When the SAGs and BAFTAs agree, they're undefeated here. Going back to 2000, those two organizations have awarded the same person 12 times. And in each of those 12 instances, that person won the Academy Award.
DeBose is priced properly, so there's unfortunately no value here. Justice for Dame Judi Dench, as she deserves to win.
Pick, but no bet: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) -1600
Deserves to win: Judi Dench (Belfast)
Collin Wilson: Per Oscarmetrics, there is a slight trend between the billing of the supporting actress and the winner of the award. Ariana DeBose plays one of the more important roles in cinema history as Anita in West Side Story, first released as a stage musical in 1957. The role of Anita is critical to the story as DeBose mastered her scenes in the most important moments of the story.
The odds reflect the performance in listing DeBose as a heavy -1600 favorite, but is there room for an upset? Two other nominees in this category had a higher billing for their respective movies, Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog and Aunjunae Ellis for King Richard.
Per The Action Network Podcast, Ellis is quietly getting the buzz from members of the Academy who voted. While DeBose is the expert pick from plenty of critics, Ellis does have the buzz that has not hit the betting board.
Taking Ellis at 18/1 odds requires timing and patience. Expect steam to hit on Sunday as Hollywood gathers for the awards, which may lower the odds on DeBose as the buzz comes in on Ellis. This is a category I will be making a small wagers on a long shot and a possible buyback before the ceremony if DeBose odds dip under -1000.
Pick: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) +1800
Chris Raybon: Like Smith, DeBose swept at the BAFTA, Critics Choice, Globes, and SAG. She has near unanimous support at Gold Derby, with extrapolated odds of closer to -5450.
For what it's worth, the only other actress predicted to win at Gold Derby is Dunst, but she's massively overvalued at +600, which implies a 14.3% chance to win — nearly eight times higher than her minuscule 1.8% support on Gold Derby suggests.
Pick: Pass
