Best Visual Effects Prediction for 2020 Oscars
Chris Raybon: The Irishman (Down to +500), The Lion King (+500)
1917 won for visual effects at the BAFTAs, and since 2010, when the Academy began nominating five films in this category, the BAFTA winner has aligned in 6-of-9 years. But wait, it’s not that simple: 1917 was snubbed at the Visual Effects Society Awards, which also has a 66.7% success rate at predicting the Oscars.
In the three instances without overlap, a film that was nominated but lost at the BAFTAs took home the Oscar. Two of those three also won a VSE award, while the third (Ex Machina) wasn’t nominated. So absent BAFTA-VSE alignment, the strongest predictors we have are a) BAFTA loss (3-of-8 won Oscars), b) VSE win (2-of-6 won Oscars), (c) BAFTA win (3-of-3 lost at Oscars). This year’s two VSE winners were The Lion King and The Irishman.
1917 is the pick for 60.6% of Gold Derby experts in this category, but that’s actually another signal that 1917 is being overvalued for its BAFTA win: Over the last eight Oscars, the experts’ top choice in this category has only taken home an Oscar half the time. I got 1917 at +700 in mid-January, but now the longshots are the best values.
Best Visual Effects Odds for 2020 Oscars
- 1917 -150
- Avengers: Endgame +250
- The Lion King +550
- The Irishman +650
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker +3300
