Oscar Odds 2025 | Betting Lines, Favorites for Best Picture, Best Actor, More at Academy Awards

Oscar Odds 2025 | Betting Lines, Favorites for Best Picture, Best Actor, More at Academy Awards article feature image
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Photo by Jason Mendez/Getty Images. Pictured: Mikey Madison and Sean Baker of Anora.

Anora is the favorite to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars at -200 odds, according to the market available at DraftKings on Monday, February 24.

The next favorites for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars are Conclave at +225 odds to win, and The Brutalist at +600 odds for Best Picture.

Other Best Picture contenders include box office sensation Wicked, which is +5000 to win Best Picture, and blockbuster sci-fi sequel "Dune: Part Two", which is +10000 to win Best Picture.

This article breaks down the nominees and betting odds for every category at the 2025 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and more.

The 97th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. They will be broadcast on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.

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Oscars Odds 2025 (Updated Monday, February 24)

  • The final major pre-Oscars awards show took place on Sunday with the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
  • Anora remains the Best Picture favorite. Conclave is now the second favorite, ahead of The Brutalist, after winning the top prize at the SAG Awards.
  • Timothee Chalamet won Best Actor over Adrien Brody, tightening the odds in the race for Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars.
  • Demi Moore beat out Mikey Madison for Best Actress, strengthening her lead as the favorite for Best Actress at this Sunday's Academy Awards.
  • Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldana solidified themselves as virtual locks to win Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, respectively.

All odds via DraftKings and as of February 24.

Best Picture Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Anora-20066.67%
Conclave+22530.77%
The Brutalist+60014.29%
A Complete Unknown+40002.44%
Wicked+40002.44%
Emilia Perez+65001.52%
I'm Still Here+80001.23%
The Nickel Boys+100000.99%
Dune: Part Two+100000.99%
The Substance+100000.99%

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Anora officially enters Oscars week as the favorite to win Best Picture at -200 odds.

The film failed to win any major awards at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, but still rides into the main event on the strength of winning the top prize from both the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild, alongside a less-relevant Critics Choice Awards win.

Since the Critics Choice Awards came into existence in 1995, the same film won the top prize at these three award shows 15 times. Twelve of those 15 movies also won Best Picture at the Oscars, with the exceptions being La La Land, Brokeback Mountain and Saving Private Ryan.

The Brutalist entered the new year as the favorite to win Best Picture, but has now been leapfrogged by two films with Conclave ascending to second favorite status for Best Picture at +225 odds. The Brutalist is now third at +600.

The film won the top prize at the SAG Awards on Sunday — Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture — to go along with a win at the BAFTAs for Best Picture.

The BAFTAs have a complicated history with predicting Oscars success, and in the Best Picture category specifically, the two ceremonies have aligned just 10 times in the last 24 years.

The PGA in particular has been the best predictor of Oscars success, aligning picks 17 times in the last 24 years, including each of the last four.

At Kalshi, Anora is trading at 62% and The Brutalist is all the way down at 14% as of this writing. Conclave is at 26%.

Best Director Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Sean Baker (Anora)-16562.26%
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)+12544.44%
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)+20004.76%
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)+25003.85%
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)+25003.85%

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Brady Corbet was an even stronger favorite for this award two months ago than the film he directed, The Brutalist, was for Best Picture. But like that race, things have changed drastically.

Once the Directors Guild awarded Sean Baker for Anora, he became the favorite and the odds have only moved in his favor.

The DGA and Academy have only awarded the Best Director prize to different people three times since 2000: 2019 (Oscar to Bong Joon-ho, DGA to Sam Mendes), 2012 (Oscar to Ang Lee, DGA to Ben Affleck) and 2000 (Oscar to Steven Soderbergh, DGA to Ang Lee).

This is a much stronger parallel to the oddsmakers than Corbet's win at the BAFTAs. As such, Baker is a -165 favorite, while Corbet is a +125 underdog.

For reference, Corbet was a -700 favorite as recently has January 23rd.

At Kalshi, Baker is trading at 60% as of this writing, with Corbet at 38%.

Best Actor Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)-23069.7%
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)+15040%
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)+16005.88%
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)+35002.78%
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)+35002.78%

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Adrien Brody has dominated the awards circuit, but a wrench was thrown into this race on Sunday when his closest competitor, Timothee Chalamet, took home the Best Actor prize at the SAG Awards.

Before the SAG Awards, Brody was a -360 favorite, with Chalamet a +340 underdog. Now, Brody is still the favorite but he is -230 to win Best Actor. Chalamet, meanwhile, is +150 to win Best Actor.

The Screen Actors Guild has a lot of weight in the predictability of acting awards because it is the largest singular voting body among Oscar voters. Since 2004, only twice has the SAG Best Actor winner not won Best Actor at the Oscars: 2016, when the SAG awarded Denzel Washington and the Oscar went to Casey Affleck, and 2020, when the SAG posthumously awarded Chadwick Boseman and the Oscar went to Anthony Hopkins.

At Kalshi, Brody is trading at 65% while Chalamet is at 36%.

Best Actress Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Demi Moore (The Substance)-25071.43%
Mikey Madison (Anora)+16537.74%
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)+14006.67%
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)+35002.78%
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)+35002.78%

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Demi Moore's win for Best Actress at the SAG Awards solidified her position as the favorite entering the Oscars. But there's still some uncertainty in this two-woman race.

Mikey Madison, who spent a majority of the winter as the favorite, won this award at the BAFTAs, making her a legitimate contender.

Many have thought Fernanda Torres to be a stealthy upset contender after she burst into the conversation with a win or her own at the Golden Globes, and she jumped up as high as +750 on the odds board, but has only gone down from there and is now the third favorite way back at +1400.

Disagreement between the SAG and Oscars for Best Actress is more common than it is for Best Actor. Since 2000, the awards have gone to different women seven times, including last year, when the SAG awarded Lily Gladstone and the Academy went with Emma Stone.

At Kalshi as of this writing, Moore is trading at 60% and Madison at 34%, while Torres is down at 7%.

Best Supporting Actor Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)-350097.22%
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)+11008.33%
Yura Borisov (Anora)+18005.26%
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)+20004.76%
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)+20004.76%

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Along with Best Supporting Actress, this is the most sure-thing award of the six major Oscars awards.

Kieran Culkin has won Best Supporting Actor at every major awards show leading up to the Academy Awards. As such, his odds are a staggering -3500 to take home the Oscar on Sunday.

His closest competitor is Edward Norton, who is at +1100.

At Kalshi, Culkin is trading at 94%, while Guy Pearce (+2000 odds) is trading at 4%.

Best Supporting Actress Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)-250096.15%
Ariana Grande (Wicked)+80011.11%
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)+14006.67%
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)+20004.76%
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)+25003.85%

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Like Culkin and Best Supporting Actor, this race is wrapped up.

Zoe Saldana has won Best Supporting Actress at every major awards show leading up to the Oscars, and is now a -2500 favorite to win Best Supporting Actress at the Academy Awards.

Saldana's closest competition is Ariana Grande, who is a +800 favorite to win Best Supporting Actress. Right behind her is Felicity Jones at +1400.

At Kalshi, Saldana is trading at 94%, while Grande is at 4% and Monica Barbaro (+2900 odds) is at 2%.

Best Adapted Screenplay Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Conclave-100090.91%
Nickel Boys+75011.76%
Emilia Perez+10009.09%
A Complete Unknown+20004.76%
Sing Sing+20004.76%

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Screenplay categories are difficult to predict because different organizations have different standards for what qualifies for "adapted" or "original."

As an example this year, Nickel Boys won the Best Adapted Screenplay award at the Writers Guild Award. However, Conclave was not eligible for the prize at the WGA (nor were Emilia Perez, Sing Sing).

That fact, along with Conclave winning this category at the BAFTAs, have led oddsmakers to keep it as the favorite in this category, and the odds actually improved after Conclave won the Best Adapted Screenplay prize at the USC Scripters Awards on Sunday, which is another strong predictor of what the Academy will do.

At Kalshi, Conclave is trading at 91%, while Nickel Boys is at 14% and A Complete Unknown is at 3%.

Best Original Screenplay Odds for the 2025 Oscars

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Anora-25071.43%
The Substance+30025%
A Real Pain+50016.67%
The Brutalist+14006.67%
September 5+35002.78%

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Anora's position as favorite hasn't moved much since these markets opened, but there are legitimate upset contenders behind it, and its position is far from firm.

A Real Pain won this prize at the BAFTAs, and while Anora won at the WGA, The Substance was not eligible for the prize there.

As such, we have Anora favored for Best Original Screenplay at -250, but two other films in the mix: The Substance at +300 odds, and A Real Pain at +500 odds.

At Kalshi, Anora is trading at 62%, The Substance is at 23%, and A Real Pain is at 14%.

Best Costume Design Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Wicked-200095.24%
Conclave+80011.11%
Nosferatu+14006.67%
A Complete Unknown+25003.85%
Gladiator II+35002.78%

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The favorite to win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars is Wicked at -2000. Wicked's odds have improved throughout awards season. It opened at -700 and has jumped to -850, then to -1100 before landing at -2000 less than a week before the Academy Awards.

The second favorite is Conclave at +800 odds to win Best Costume Design.

Behind Conclave is Nosferatu at +1400 odds to win Best Costume Design at the Oscars, followed by A Complete Unknown at +2500 odds, and Gladiator II at +3500 odds.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
The Substance-140093.33%
Wicked+60014.29%
Nosferatu+14006.67%
Emilia Perez+28003.45%
A Different Man+35002.78%

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The favorite to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars is The Substance at -1400 odds. The Substance opened around -300 for this award, and has seen its odds improve from there.

The second favorite is Wicked, which has +600 odds to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars include Nosferatu at +1400, Emilia Perez at +2800, and A Different Man at +3500.

Best Production Design Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Wicked-40080%
Nosferatu+50016.67%
The Brutalist+80011.11%
Conclave+90010%
Dune: Part Two+35002.78%

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The favorite to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars is Wicked at -400 odds. Wicked has been the favorite in this category throughout awards season since opening at around a -250 favorite.

The second favorite is Nosferatu, which has +500 odds to win Best Production Design at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars include The Brutalist at +800, Conclave at +900, and Dune: Part Two at +3500.

Best Original Song Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
El Mal (Emilia Perez)-31075.61%
The Journey (Six Triple Eight)+40020%
Mi Camino (Emilia Perez)+80011.11%
Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)+80011.11%
Like a Bird (Sing Sing)+20004.76%

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The favorite to win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars is El Mal from Emilia Perez at -310 odds. El Mal has been the favorite since this market opened, with the odds remaining steady at around -300.

The second favorite is The Journey from Six Triple Eight, which has +400 odds to win Best Original Song at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars include Mi Camino (Emilia Perez) at +800, Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late) at +800, and Like a Bird (Sing Sing) at +2000.

Best Visual Effects Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Dune: Part Two-80088.89
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes+40020%
Wicked+20004.76%
Better Man+25003.85%
Alien: Romulus+35002.78%

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The favorite to win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars is Dune: Part Two, at -800 odds. Dune: Part Two has remained the favorite since this market opened in the -700 to -800 range.

The second favorite is Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which has +400 odds to win Best Visual Effects at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars include Wicked at +2000, Better Man at +2500, and Alien: Romulus at +3500.

Best Animated Feature Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
The Wild Robot-34077.27%
Flow+22530.77%
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl+16005.88%
Inside Out 2+20004.76%
Memoir of a Snail+35002.78%

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The favorite to win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars is The Wild Robot at -340 odds. The Wild Robot has remained the favorite since this market opened at around -200 odds.

The second favorite is Flow at +225 odds to win best Animated Feature at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars include Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl at +1600, Inside Out 2 at +2000, and Memoir of a Snail at +3500.

Best Cinematography Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
The Brutalist-34077.27%
Nosferatu+35022.22%
Dune: Part Two+55015.38%
Maria+20004.76%
Emilia Perez+65001.52%

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The favorite to win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars is The Brutalist at -340 odds. The Brutalist opened as the favorite at around -200 odds and its lead has only grown from there.

The second favorite is Nosferatu at +350 odds to win Best Cinematography at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars include Dune: Part Two at +550, Maria at +2000, and Emilia Perez at +6500.

Best International Feature Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
I'm Still Here-14058.33%
Emilia Perez+11047.62%
The Seed of the Sacred Fig+14006.67%
Flow+25003.85%
The Girl with the Needle+40002.44%

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The favorite to win Best International Feature at the 2025 Oscars is I'm Still Here at -140 odds. I'm Still opened as an underdog at around +125 odds, but is now the favorite to take home the prize.

The second favorite is Emilia Perez at +110 odds to win best International Feature at the Academy Awards. Emilia Perez opened as the betting favorite at around -190 odds, but has since dropped behind the new favorite, I'm Still Here.

Other nominees for Best International Feature at the 2025 Oscars include The Seed of the Sacred Fig at +1400, Flow at +2500, and The Girl with the Needle at +4000.

Best Film Editing Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Conclave-14058.33%
Anora+15040%
The Brutalist+70012.5%
Wicked+14006.67%
Emilia Perez+35002.78%

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The favorite to win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars is Conclave at -140 odds. Conclave opened as the favorite in this market at around +175, and has seen its lead grow from there.

The second favorite is Anora at +150 odds to win Best Film Editing at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars include The Brutalist at +700, Wicked at +1400, and Emilia Perez at +3500.

Best Original Score Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
The Brutalist-40080%
The Wild Robot+40020%
Conclave+80011.11%
Emilia Perez+16005.88%
Wicked+35002.78%

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The favorite to win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars is The Brutalist at -400 odds. The Brutalist opened as the favorite for this award at around -250 odds, and remains there.

The second favorite is The Wild Robot at +400 odds to win Best Original Score at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars include Conclave at +800, Emilia Perez at +1600, and Wicked at +3500.

Best Sound Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Dune: Part Two-40080%
A Complete Unknown+35022.22%
Wicked+60014.29%
The Wild Robot+50001.96%
Emilia Perez+50001.96%

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The favorite to win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars is Dune: Part Two at -400 odds. Dune: Part Two opened as the favorite to win this award at around -200 odds and its position has only strengthened.

The second favorite is A Complete Unknown at +350 odds to win Best Sound at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars include Wicked at +600, The Wild Robot at +5000, and Emilia Perez at +5000.

Best Documentary Feature Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
No Other Land-16562.26%
Porcelain War+15040%
Sugarcane+70012.5%
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat+16005.88%
Black Box Diaries+20004.76%

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The favorite to win Best Documentary Feature at the 2025 Oscars is No Other Land at -165 odds. No Other Land opened as a strong favorite around -350 odds, but has seen its lead shrink leading up to the Oscars.

The second favorite is Porcelain War at +150 odds to win Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Documentary Feature at the 2025 Oscars include Sugarcane at +700, Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat at +1600, and Black Box Diaries at +2000.

Best Animated Short Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
Wander to Wonder-25071.43%
Beautiful Man+22530.77%
Yuck!+90010%
Magic Candies+12007.69%
In the Shadow of the Cypress+40002.44%

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The favorite to win Best Animated Short at the 2025 Oscars is Wander to Wonder at -250 odds. Wander to Wonder opened as the co-favorite in this category at around +115 odds, and is now alone as the solo favorite.

The second favorite is Beautiful Man at +225 odds to win Best Animated Short at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Animated Short at the 2025 Oscars include Yuck! at +900, Magic Candies at +1200, and In the Shadow of the Cypress at +4000.

Best Documentary Short Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
I Am Ready, Warden+10050%
The Only Girl in the Orchestra+26027.78%
Death by Numbers+37021.28%
Incident+45018.18%
Instruments of a Beating Heart+28003.45%

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The favorite to win Best Documentary Short at the 2025 Oscars is I Am Ready, Warden at +100 odds. I Am Ready, Warden opened as the favorite to win this award and remains ahead in a tight race.

The second favorite is The Only Girl in the Orchestra at +260 odds to win Best Documentary Short at the Academy Awards.

Other nominees for Best Documentary Short at the 2025 Oscars include Death by Numbers at +370, Incident at +450, and Instruments of a Beating Heart at +2800.

Best Live Action Short Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Prob.
A Lien+15040%
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent+17536.36%
Anuja+25028.57%
I'm Not a Robot+65013.33%
The Last Ranger+30003.23%

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The favorite to win Best Live Action Short at the 2025 Oscars is A Lien at +150 odds. A Lien opened as long as +850 odds to win this award, but has jumped up to become the favorite.

The favorite for this award at opening as The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, which is now at +175 odds to win Best Live Action Short at the Academy Awards after opening around -150 odds.

Other nominees for Best Live Action Short at the 2025 Oscars include Anuja at +250, I'm Not a Robot at +650, and The Last Ranger at +3000.

Oscars FAQ

When are the 2025 Oscars?

The 2025 Oscars (97th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 2, 2025.

Where are the 2025 Oscars held?

The 2025 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Where to watch the 2025 Oscars?

The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.

Who is hosting the 2025 Oscars?

The 2025 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.

Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?

The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Substance, The Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, and I'm Still Here.

Who is favored to win at the 2025 Oscars?

Anora is the favorite for Best Picture, Sean Baker (Anora) is the favorite for Best Director, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is favored to win Best Actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) is favored to win Best Actress, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.

Who won at the 2024 Oscars?

Christopher Nolan's film "Oppenheimer" was the big winner at the 2024 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most nominations (13) and overall wins (7). It also won Best Director (Nolan), Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Original Score, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing. Emma Stone won Best Actress for her role in "Poor Things," while Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "The Holdovers."

Is Wicked nominated for an Oscar?

"Wicked" is nominated for Best Picture and has +5000 odds to win. Additionally, Cynthia Erivo has been nominated for Best Actress and Ariana Grande has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress.

Where can I bet on the Oscars?

Kalshi allows users in all 50 states to wager on the Oscars via contract trading. Learn more here and sign up for a $10 new user bonus below.

Betting markets for the Oscars are also made available at sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel in select states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Kansas and Louisiana. It is also available in Ontario, Canada.

About the Author
Collin Whitchurch is the manager of cross-platform content at Action Network, working directly with on-air talent, editors, and producers on efficient prioritization of coverage across the editorial, video, and audio mediums. Prior to his current role, Collin was the senior MLB editor at Action, managing the day-to-day content produced about baseball.

Follow Collin Whitchurch @cowhitchurch on Twitter/X.

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