Arsenal vs Leeds United Odds
Arsenal Odds | -350 |
Leeds United Odds | +800 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-200 / +162) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-106 / -125) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Arsenal return from the final international break less than two months from potentially lifting the Premier League.
There's good and bad injury news for Arsenal ahead of their clash with Leeds United in North London on Saturday. They will have Gabriel Jesus back in the lineup to lead the forward line, but an injury to William Saliba could leave them more exposed at the back.
Leeds United went into the international break with a crucial 4-2 victory away at Wolves. The attack is healthy, finally scoring goals and enjoying the positive regression that their underlying numbers suggested were on the way. The Peacocks' blueprint from the first matchup at Elland Road caused major problems for Arsenal, even though Arsenal won the match 1-0.
Leeds have their defensive issues, but the Peacocks should be able to create plenty of chances against an overvalued Arsenal defense that's shorthanded.
Arsenal Gearing Up For Final Push
Arsenal had yet another routine home victory against an inferior club just before the international break. The 4-1 victory against Crystal Palace was really never in doubt from an attacking perspective. They finished well above their level of chances created on the day, but still produced 1.7 xG and 15 shots. Arsenal completed 12 passes into the penalty area and added 10 carries as well.
There were once again some defensive cracks, though. Willfried Zaha hit the post early in the match, they struggled to defend a set piece that led to Jeffrey Schlupp's consolation goal and their defense conceded nine shots to a Palace side that hadn't scored a goal in a month.
The loss of Saliba is significant to this defense, as is the injury to Takehiro Tomiyasu. We've seen the weakness in the Gunners possession system that some teams have exploited. Because Mikel Arteta tucks his fullbacks in to help possession, the flanks and channels are open for quick strike counters. They become especially vulnerable if Thomas Partey isn't able to play, and he's listed as questionable.
An injury to Saliba means that Rob Holding will play center back, and he's often been a target for his inconsistent play on the ball. Leeds can take advantage of this by setting pressing traps around him, forcing high turnovers and threatening the Arsenal goal.
Leeds are well suited to exploit this. Arsenal had two impressive showings against two overvalued attacks in Leicester and Fulham. Otherwise, they've conceded either multiple goals or at least 1 xG in each of their last 11 matches.
Leeds United Have Deceiving Statistics
Leeds' away form this season looks terrible at the surface. The Peacocks have two wins and nine defeats away from Elland Road. But a look under the hood reveals Leeds have had no problems going on the road and producing success.
They have a -4 xGD, which is right around league average. The entire Leeds statistical profile screams that of an average Premier League team, particularly going forward.
The Peacocks rank 11th in non-penalty xG, 10th in expected threat, ninth in total shots and 10th in average shot quality. They've scored goals and threatened against Liverpool, once against Chelsea, against Spurs, Manchester United and Manchester City. Their style helps them when they go up against top teams in the table, even if it often leaves their defense exposed to concede a bunch of goals at the other end.
Leeds will look to disrupt Arsenal's possession structure. In the last meeting, Leeds held Arsenal to their fewest number of passes completed into the penalty area. It was one of the Peacocks best performances of the season, even though they lost 1-0.
Arsenal vs Leeds United Pick
The Gunners were outshot 15-9 and out-created 1.8-0.5 in xG in that first meeting. Arsenal should be able to score at least one at home against the poor Peacocks defense — who will be without new center back Maximilian Wober — but they’ll be vulnerable to Leeds' attack at the other end.
Leeds are an average to above average attack in terms of almost every metric, from xG to shots to box entries. There’s more positive regression coming for this group and I'll bet on both teams to score on Saturday at -115 or better.
