Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -334 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +800 |
| Draw | +475 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -133 / +110 |
The second half of match week 21 in the Premier League begins on Saturday with a London derby as Crystal Palace visit Arsenal at The Emirates. Arsenal have lost three consecutive matches across all competitions, including two league defeats that saw their title odds dip to +750 and the gap between them and Liverpool expand to five points at the top of the Premier League table.
There's been talk of Arsenal potentially signing a striker as a way to help improve their lackluster attacking output. Gabriel Jesus is expected to start up top, but we're past the halfway point of the year and the Gunners' leading goalscorer in the league is Bukayo Saka, who has six goals.
Given their general struggles and finishing regression following everyone's career year last year, the value lies with the under in this matchup as well. Crystal Palace's attack without some key players on the road against the league's best defense won't offer much attacking threat on the break.
Here is my Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction.
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Arsenal
Arsenal have shifted more and more of their attacking output to the right side of the pitch and Saka this season. So much of their attacking system is based around strict possession and control, and eventually working the ball to Saka for him to beat a man and play a cross or cutback. Saka has improved on his numbers this season relative to last overall, but the talent around him has all taken a step back. Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard have especially cooled off as finishers this year and the result is fewer goals from the auxiliary contributors.
Because the Gunners don't naturally have a 20+ goal per year player, Arsenal need to find edges elsewhere. Arsenal have scored more goals from set plays than anyone in the PL, yet they sit 12th in open play goals.
Open play goals and production is considerably more sticky and less variable to count on for future production. The Gunners will face a challenge getting much against Palace from dead ball situations given that the Eagles rank inside the top five in set piece expected goals and actual goals allowed.
Palace have a league average defensive side themselves. They are comfortable defending in a low block and that will force Arsenal to send in a lot of crosses. The late arriving runs from Xhaka and Odegaard were so effective last year, but Arsenal haven't been able to sustain that production. As the early goals have dried up, inferior teams have had to come out and play against them less. It's led to lower event matches and Arsenal's defense remains fully healthy and elite at ball stopping.
Crystal Palace
Roy Hodgson’s side was dumped out of the FA Cup in a replay loss to Everton on Wednesday. The Eagles will again be without Michael Olise due to injury and Jordan Ayew due to the Africa Cup of Nations. Since Olise went out injured, they failed to score in both matches against a league average Everton in the FA Cup. They scored three on Brentford just at the end of the festive fixtures, but two of them were scored by Olise and the drop off from him to the reserves is more than the market suggests here.
Their attack without Olise and Ayew means that almost all of the attacking creativity comes down to the feet of Eberechi Eze. Olise was producing at an 0.78 xG + xA clip in the league, and he was in the midst of a hot finishing run that saw him score five goals in less than 10 90s.
Eze has enjoyed an excellent season himself, but he's less of a shot-getter for Palace and more of a creator on the break. But now facing the league’s best defense, the Gunners shouldn’t have too much trouble containing Palace in transition.
In the first meeting between these two clubs at Selhurt Park in August, Palace created just 0.3 xG in the first 65 minutes prior to an Arsenal red card. They defended well in wide areas though, and likely wide starter Jeffrey Schlupp has excellent defensive metrics. He’ll be tasked with helping defend Saka, who Arsenal are running more and more of their attack through this season. Odsonne Edouard is also a better defensive forward than Jean-Phillipe Mateta, and the Eagles are expected to start a three man midfield of Will Hughes, Chris Richards and Jefferson Lerma to prevent being completely overrun by Arsenal's impressive counterpress.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
This is the kind of match where Arsenal will probably get a lead and then look to kill off the match from there in textbook Mikel Arteta fashion. Their control-oriented style has made it difficult for them to get margin against most inferior foes, and this match is likely to be no different.
My projections have this total lined right on 2.5 goals, and thus I’d bet the +110 on the under as a small projection edge. Palace defend crosses well, and Arsenal’s crossing success rate is considerably worse this year compared to last.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+105 or better)
