Arsenal vs Newcastle Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -275 |
| Newcastle Odds | +700 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Arsenal look to keep pace in the Premier League title race when they host Newcastle.
They were beaten by Porto in the Champions League on Wednesday, but their form in the Premier League has been outstanding and has put them back in the title race. The Gunners have won five straight matches and have a pretty favorable schedule coming up, so three points here would continue to put the pressure on Liverpool and Manchester City.
Newcastle have somewhat turned things around after a dreadful run of form in December and January. The Magpies are unbeaten in their last four Premier League matches and need to keep things going if they are going to qualify for European spot.
Read on for my Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction.
Arsenal
Arsenal had their worst showing of the season in Porto on Wednesday night, losing 1-0, but more importantly only being able to create 0.09 xG from open play. While that is pretty alarming, the context of the match really does matter. There were a total of 36 fouls and the ball was only in play for 50 of the 90 minutes, so all credit to Porto for mucking up the match and talking Arsenal completely out of rhythm.
That is not going to happen here because Newcastle are not even close to good enough out of possession to repeat what Porto did. Arsenal have been one of the best build up teams in the world for a while now and it comes down to Mikel Arteta's diverse tactics that makes Arsenal a very difficult team to prepare for.
The last few matches they have been playing Trossard as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid. Oftentimes Odegaard, Havertz or Trossard will drop deep in build up, which allows Arsenal to have numerical superiority as they move the ball through the first and second phases if teams do not choose to go man to man. If opposing defenses go man to man, Trossard and Odegaard will pull center backs or defensive midfielders out of position, which allows space for Martinelli and Saka to make runs at or in behind the opposing back line.
The basic principle of dropping Trossard and Odegaard deep in build up is Arsenal is then playing a 4-2-2-2 in possession, which allows them to overload the center of the pitch and play right through teams having a 3 v 2 superiority in build up all over the pitch. Having a 3 v 2 superiority against a team like Newcastle is a massive advantage for Arsenal.
Newcastle
Here is the problem that exists for Newcastle in this match. They do not have a structure out of possession that can give Arsenal problems. They frustrated Arsenal in the first meeting at St. James Park because they had most of their key personnel available, most importantly Joelinton who is their best pressing midfielder and covers the most ground in the midfield when Newcastle decide to press out of their 4-3-3 structure.
With the 4-3-3 press not working, Eddie Howe switched Newcastle to a 4-5-1 mid block, which wasn't working as good build up teams were able to exploit them in the space in between the defensive lines. So, Howe went back to his patented 4-3-3 press against Aston Villa, but with a different twist.
Newcastle are now pushing their back line up high and going man to man marking the opposing attacking players, which is incredibly aggressive and dangerous because of the personnel they have across their backline.
Newcastle’s back line is slow by Premier League standards and since they switched to this new pressing structure. Luton Town, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have utilized pace to get in behind their back line and create chances, so what do you think Arsenal are going to do?
The Newcastle defense has been in shambles for a long time now, as they can't find an out of possession structure that works for the personnel they have available. They’ve conceded the second-most expected goals in the Premier League since the start of November and in their past eight matches, they’ve conceded 20 big scoring chances, so it seems Howe has decided to just go for it and make matches incredibly high event.
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Prediction
This is a perfect get right spot for Arsenal against a Newcastle defense that is completely lost and won't have a structure that can slow Arsenal down. Eddie Howe will have to either be incredibly aggressive and try to disrupt Arsenal's build up or sit in their 4-5-1 that has yielded 7.0 expected goals to Liverpool and 3.0 expected goals to Manchester City.
Although Arsenal struggled against Porto on Wednesday, that was against a good defensive low block, which Newcastle don't have. Since Arsenal started playing Havertz or Trossard as a false nine they have scored 14 goals in three Premier League matches and I am expecting them to have another good offensive showing here at home.
Arsenal have been incredible at the Emirates this year, putting up a +19.2 expected goal differential in 12 matches, while Newcastle have a -7.8 expected goal differential away from St. James Park.
I like Arsenal in a rout, so I'll take them on the spread -1.5 at +110.
