Aston Villa vs West Ham Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -118 |
| West Ham Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Aston Villa looks to continue their fine form against non-elite teams when they host David Moyes' West Ham at Villa Park.
Aston Villa is a perfect tale of two different stories. Unai Emery's conservative, build-out-of-the-back style has allowed Aston Villa to beat up on a lot of lower-level clubs this season. However, every time they face one of the elites, they have struggled.
So this is a perfect spot for them to continue their fine season, which has them in fifth place coming out of the international break.
West Ham is a club that is just waiting to regress. If it wasn't for Sheffield United, West Ham would be allowing the most expected goals in the Premier League. Moyes' passive low block has been getting broken down week after week, but the Hammers continue to out-perform and get results.
Can they pull off yet another upset on Sunday against Aston Villa?
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Aston Villa
Even though Aston Villa have overperformed their expected metrics, I think the tactical matchup here really favors them.
Emery has basically switched to a 3-5-2 formation to play Lucas Digne and Matty Cash as forward-progressing wingbacks and the results have shown that it’s working.
When Aston Villa are in possession, they are often building out in a 3-2-5 structure with Cash and Digne pushing wide and high up the pitch to create 1 v 1 opportunities and especially overloads with Diaby on the right side of the pitch. That has caused Aston Villa to create numerous chances via crosses, completing the second most of any team in the Premier League.
West Ham has been bailed out defensively this year by some poor finishing from their opponents. Aston Villa is maybe the most clinical team in the Premier League right now in front of net.
Again, yes, they've overperformed their expected goals and, yes, there is some regression coming at some point, but West Ham have also been over-performing defensively and are due for some regression themselves. Aston Villa is sitting with a 0.36 goals per shot on target rating right now, which is the fourth-best mark in the Premier League.
Aston Villa has also beaten up on teams below them in the table ever since Emery arrived in Birmingham. In 16 matches against the bottom half of the table under Emery, Aston Villa has a +10.5 xGD and has only lost the xG battle four times in those 16 matches.
Additionally, Aston Villa has a +9.7 xGD at Villa Park since the start of last season.
West Ham
West Ham have been flat-out bad defensively. Moyes is playing an extreme low block out of possession and teams are creating chance after chance against it.
The thing is, their low block has been effective early on in games, but the Hammers tire out as the match goes along because when you spend sometimes 70% of the match man-marking runners and defending in your own end of the pitch it can get exhausting. That is why 60% of West Ham’s expected goals have been conceded in the second half of matches.
Aston Villa has created a ton chances via crosses this season, which is bad news for West Ham, who defensively have allowed the most crosses into their penalty area of anyone. Additionally, Alphonse Areola is having an unreal shot-stopping season, leading the Premier League with a +3.5 post shot xG +/-, so there will be some regression coming for him.
You also have to think about the types of teams that West Ham have been successful against: aggressive, high-pressing teams like Brighton and Newcastle. It allows them to have space either when they send the ball long via goal kicks to win aerial duals or when they win the ball in their own final third and get the ball moving forward in a quick transition with all of the fantastic dribblers they have.
Aston Villa is not that type of team; they are very passive and set up to not get beat in transitional moments. Emery is a conservative manager by nature; to beat him, you have to disrupt Aston Villa’s build-up play or be able to consistently make runs off their back line, West Ham isn’t going to do either of those things.
Aston Villa vs West Ham
Pick & Prediction
This is not the type of matchup where West Ham can thrive. Aston Villa is too conservative and good in transition defense to allow West Ham easy transition opportunities that they've gotten against other teams that are more aggressive with their pressing and overloading the last line of defense when they are in the Hammers' final third.
Aston Villa is maybe not elite, but certainly really good at breaking down low blocks. considering their ability to not only cross the ball into the 18 yard box, but to convert final-third entries into box entries.
Plus, they've been incredibly dominant against bottom-half-of-the-table teams, which underlying metrics suggest West Ham are, despite them sitting in seventh place.
I like the value on Aston Villa at home here to get all three points at -110.
Pick: Aston Villa ML (-110)
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