Bournemouth vs Liverpool Odds
Bournemouth Odds | +600 |
Liverpool Odds | -240 |
| Draw | +380 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-164 / +134) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-132 / +104) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Bournemouth lost in heartbreaking fashion at The Emirates on a last-second wonder goal from Reiss Nelson in a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal last weekend. The Cherries led nearly the entire match after it took just nine seconds for them to score from the opening kick-off.
The schedule doesn't get any easier for Bournemouth after losses to Manchester City and Arsenal as the Cherries now host Liverpool, following the Reds' historic 7-0 victory against Manchester United on Sunday.
Liverpool are now favored to get into the top four following that victory and more dropped points by both Newcastle and Spurs in the chase. It looks like United, Arsenal and City have the first three spots locked up, but fourth and a return to the Champions League would salvage an otherwise lost season for the Reds.
The Reds do have Champions League play on Wednesday against Real Madrid, but trailing by three goals on aggregate makes a comeback a tall task. Even though Liverpool are playing better and are much healthier right now, there are still defensive flaws. This market is priced like peak Liverpool defense, which hasn't existed for almost a year now.
There's value in backing goals when the Reds visit the south coast to kickoff the Premier League match week.
Bournemouth Reeling Off Devastating Loss
The Cherries only took four shots in the weekend loss to Arsenal, but all four were extremely high quality. They produced 1.4 xG, which is the sixth straight game that Bournemouth have produced at least 1 xG. The schedule hasn't been easy either, as they've played City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Brighton in that time frame.
I spent most of December and January betting against this Cherries attack that had a ton of regression coming. After a brutal run with very few goals, the Cherries are innovating and finding new ways to get the most out of an attacking group that lacks depth and high end talent. After returning from the World Cup break, Bournemouth played eight matches and scored just three total goals — they were blanked six times.
The improved goal scoring and chance creation of late hasn't really been picked up by the market. The Cherries are still the worst attack in the league this year by xG, but they are pretty good on set pieces and crosses. That’s two major areas of weakness for the Reds this season. As much as the Reds are turning the corner and the attack is fit and firing, there are still defensive questions for them that Bournemouth can exploit at home.
Liverpool have been terrible at stopping crosses from wide areas and set pieces this season. Those two weaknesses give the Cherries an opening at home. Liverpool won the reverse fixture 9-0 too, so you’d expect some type of response from Bournemouth at home on Saturday. The Cherries only managed one point from the matches because the defense is also terrible, but Bournemouth did score against Manchester City, Newcastle and Arsenal in the last month — the league’s three best defenses.
Liverpool Performing Above Current Expectations
Liverpool have kept three consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League following the 5-2 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League, but I wouldn't be fooled into thinking Liverpool are all of a sudden back as an excellent defense. They conceded 0.8 xGA per match in those three contests on average and played Crystal Palace and Wolves — two of the worst attacks in the league.
Given current form, Bournemouth would grade out as a better attack than both since it made improvements in the January transfer window. The Reds do have their first choice center back pairing back with Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté. Thiago is still out injured though, and most of Liverpool's defensive issues start from the front six, not necessarily the center back pairing.
The Reds should be able to score multiple times against one of the worst defenses in the league and Darwin Nunez appears to breaking out of his finishing slump as well. He's still the Premier League leader in xG + xA per 90 this season.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool Pick
For the both teams to score market, this is closer to the kind of price I'd expect to see if the match were being played at Anfield. Remember that the Reds have been awful defensively away from home all season. Liverpool have conceded 20.2 xGA in 12 away matches, which is the sixth worst in the entire league.
Only the three newly promoted teams plus Everton and Leicester City have conceded more chances and high quality looks on their travels. Even in dominant wins at home for the Reds, both Wolves and United managed nearly 1 xG and had a couple excellent scoring chances that went awry.
The Cherries' attack is trending up once again and now has the underlying numbers to prove it. Bournemouth are undervalued to score again. I'd bet both teams to score at -130 or better.
