Bournemouth vs Chelsea Odds
Bournemouth Odds | +235 |
Chelsea Odds | +114 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105/ -125) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-125/ -105) |
| Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Floundering Chelsea looks to avoid the embarrassment of sinking even further in the table when they visit Bournemouth on Saturday.
The 12th-place Blues have lost six in a row in all competitions and four straight in the league since Frank Lampard took over as caretaker boss from Graham Potter. They could sink below Bournemouth and into 13th with a defeat; they are in danger of their worst league finish since finishing 11th in 1995-96.
Bournemouth have won four of their last five in a stunning reversal of form under manager Gary O'Neil. With 15 points earned since the beginning of March, they now look nearly guaranteed of Premier League survival after being favorites to go down during the winter.
Chelsea earned a 2-0 victory in these teams' previous meeting at Stamford Bridge in late December.
Bournemouth
O'Neil should get a lot of credit for the Cherries' resurgence, but perhaps so should Neto, the Brazilian goalkeeper who has captained the squad since the beginning of February.
With Neto wearing the armband after recovering from a mid-season injury, the Cherries have gone from a side that earned 0.85 points per match in its first 20 games to 1.57 in its last 14 matches.
The analytics suggest a credible improvement as well in that span. Bournemouth has posted a -0.38 xG difference per 90 minutes since Neto took the armband, and a +1.0 total xG differential in seven matches in April.
If there's room for improvement, it's in Bournemouth's home form. The Cherries' six wins at Vitality Stadium are only one more than they've earned away from home, albeit with three of those away wins coming in the last month.
Chelsea
Chelsea's play has been poor for most of the season, and it may have dipped to an even lower level under Frank Lampard. But their six-match slide also owes to an unusually rough run in the schedule.
The Blues have only lost once to a team lower than them in the league table during that run, and two defeats came in the UEFA Champions League to defending holders Real Madrid.
It's also not unique to Lampard as coach this season. Chelsea lost three in a row in the league back in October, and two of the same opponents — Arsenal and Brighton — were involved.
Theoretically, the Blues' anemic attack could be due for a bit of a breakthrough. They've scored only twice in their last six league games while generating 8.0 expected goals in that stretch. That period accounts for more than half of the difference between their 31 goals scored and 41.5 xG generated this season.
Bournemouth vs Chelsea Pick
Bettors who have faded Chelsea this season have been mostly successful. And while there is some evidence Chelsea is due for better attacking fortune, there's also data that shows the performances have been quantifiably poor. In their last five on their travels, the Blues have posted a positive expected goal difference only once.
Bournemouth's underlying numbers at home aren't a lot better — but they're also not worse. And given that they were one of the most active teams during the winter transfer window, there's also reason to believe they are materially improved from their earlier struggles, as recent xG data generally shows.
Further, some of the Cherries' recent successes at home have come against teams who you'd expect to try and be ball dominant even on their travels, like Liverpool and Fulham.
I'm backing the home side here. But in light of the idea that Chelsea might be due for improvement, I'm doing so cautiously, playing Bournemouth +0.5 goals on a handicap wager at -135 odds and an implied 57.4% probability.
