Brentford vs Burnley Odds
| Brentford Odds | -133 |
| Burnley Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -105 |
Brentford will be hosting Vincent Kompany and Burnley in this Saturday fixture at the Gtech Community Stadium. Brentford currently sit 15th in the Premier League with seven points, while Burnley sit 18th with just four points so far.
Thomas Frank will look to turn around this rough start to the season that Brentford have endured. They have only won one match so far this season and have lost four of their last five matches in all competitions. Not only have they been losing matches, but they have not been playing particularly well either, losing the xG battle in all but one of their last five.
Vincent Kompany has given Burnley a clear plan on how he wants them to play, it just has not panned out how he would have hoped so far. Burnley are yet to keep a clean sheet and have not shown nearly enough firepower in front of goal in this young Premier League season.
This is sure to be an intriguing matchup, so let’s get into my preview and picks for Brentford vs Burnley.
Brentford
Brentford have not seen the most ideal start to their season, but the underlying numbers are slightly more encouraging than what they have shown. Brentford have performed like a midtable side, so why are they near the bottom of the league? An obvious factor is the number of injuries they have suffered.
Three of the most impactful Brentford players in this side last season, Ivan Toney, Ben Mee and Rico Henry have missed all or most of the season up until this point. This is no easy task for any team to overcome, let alone Brentford, who have been punching above their weight for a few years now.
Thomas Frank loves to attack down the wings with their fullbacks and this has been so successful in recent years because of the quality of players like Henry and Aaron Hickey creating for Mbeumo and Toney, who know how to score goals.
Unfortunately, there will be no Henry, Hickey, or Toney, so Frank will be playing a makeshift backline with fullbacks who he does not trust to fully do the job he wants. Without these wide players creating, there is a lack of goal scoring chances which ends up in turning the ball over and allowing pressure from opposing sides. This could be a reason why they have not been great defensively so far, but it also does not help when their goalie, Flekken has been massively underperforming.
Brentford have given up 8.2 PSxG, yet they have conceded 12 goals. This is the worst +/- in the league at -3.8 and has contributed to why the Bees are not as high in the table as they would want to be or should be.
Burnley
Burnley have really struggled to effectively play the way that Kompany wants them to. The Burnley manager wants his side to play a similar way to how they did when they dominated the Championship last season.
He wants a possession-based brand of football because that is all he knows as a manager so far, but this just does not work in the Premier League without a super high caliber of player.
There are a very select few sides in the league who can effectively play this way. Burnley are not one of them. If you try to play like Manchester City without the quality of Manchester City players you will end up getting relegated, which Kompany must be starting to realize.
Similar to Brentford, Burnley have been giving up more goals than anticipated. They have conceded 20 goals while only giving up 14.7 xGA. Now keep in mind, 14.7 is still one of the worst in the league and they are underperforming that number massively. This should be slightly encouraging for Burnley fans because they are giving up goals at a rate only exceeded by Sheffield United.
To be fair to Burnley, they have gone through a gauntlet of Premier League teams so far. They have already played City, Villa, Spurs, United, Newcastle and Chelsea, arguably six of the top eight sides in the league.
Brentford vs Burnley
Pick & Prediction
Because of the defensive fragility of both Brentford and Burnley, I see goals coming in this match.
I think Brentford will be able to exploit the lack of force in the Burnley midfield in transition and will be able to generate a flurry of chances even without the creative forces that they normally have out wide. They have also generated the most xG from set pieces this season as that is a big focus on creating chances for Thomas Frank.
Burnley have scored in each of the matches against the non-elite defenses in the league. Only being blanked by Newcastle, City and United.
Due to all of this, I love BTTS for this match. I just cannot see either side being defensively sound based on the Brentford injuries and Burnley’s style of play.
If I were to lean a side, it would also be Brentford as I think the number is just slightly too low right now in a buy low spot.
