Brentford vs Chelsea Odds
| Brentford Odds | +220 |
| Chelsea Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -186 / +137 |
Brentford and Chelsea look for positive result when they meet for a West London Derby.
They are going through a terrible run at the moment and have fallen down into the relegation fight. The Bees have lost 10 of their last 12 Premier League matches, but they have been really unlucky along the way. They beat Chelsea 2-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier this season and will be looking for a similar result to get out of the relegation fight.
Chelsea are coming off losing the League Cup final and barely surviving against Leeds in the FA Cup on Wednesday. The Blues are still sitting in the middle of the Premier League table without much hope of climbing up the table given how limited they are tactically under Mauricio Pochettino.
Here is how I'm betting Brentford vs Chelsea.
Brentford
It's tough times for Brentford right now. They’ve been incredibly unlucky all season and the bad run of variance continued on Monday when they conceded four goals off of 1.7 expected against West Ham.
Brentford’s defense has been a mess for a while and it’s a mixture of a couple of different things. Number one, Mark Flekken has been the worst goalkeeper in the Premier League. He has a -6.7 post shot xG +/- and really hasn’t improved much at all recently. Secondly, they are making so many dumb uncharacteristic defensive mistakes that have led to high chances. Last season, they were one of the best teams outside the Big Six at preventing big scoring chances, but over their last eight matches they have conceded 11 big scoring chances and are allowing 2.15 expected goals per match.
To make matters worse for Brentford, their best center back, Ethan Pinnock, is going to be out due to injury, so it’s hard to see how Brentford will be able to hold Chelsea at bay.
With that being said, with Ivan Toney back in the lineup the Brentford offense is humming. Through this difficult eight match stretch where they’ve had to play Manchester City twice, Wolves twice and Liverpool, they are averaging 1.55 expected goals per 90 minutes. This match also sets up perfectly for them tactically.
Chelsea
Chelsea may have good underlying numbers, but they are limited tactically by Mauricio Pochettino and he doesn't seem to want to change anytime soon. The Blues have had good results against the top teams because they are a good team out of possession and quite frankly are better playing in transition rather than being a team that consistently builds out of the back. The problem is they are likely not going to be playing in transition very often in this match.
Brentford like to sit in a low defensive block and counter attack from deep when they play bigger sides and it’s worked considering they’ve given the Big Six so many fits since getting promoted to the Premier League. Chelsea are going to try to overload the last line of defense, which means Enzo Fernendez is going to get pushed further up the pitch. What that also means is Moises Caicedo is going to get isolated in the midfield and he has not been playing at an elite level in terms of ball-stopping, so in turn Chelsea haven't been great defending in transition.
Chelsea just recently played a team that is going to set up and play very similar to that of Brentford. It was Gary O’Neill’s Wolves and they torched them in transition repeatedly, scoring four goals and Brentford can do the same.
Brentford vs Chelsea
Prediction
Brentford are going through a bad run of form, but they are way overdue for some positive regression and this matchup against Chelsea are about as perfect as it gets. They should be able to exploit the Blues time and time again in transition, but the problem is the Bees haven't been as good defending in their low defensive block.
Chelsea have been a good offensive team by the underlying numbers averaging 1.62 npxG per 90 minutes and have created the third-most big scoring chances this season. They created 1.9 expected goals in the previous meeting against Brentford, so they are very capable of breaking down the Bees low block.
This match has the makings of being incredibly high event with Brentford being effective in transition and Chelsea being able to break down Brentford's low block.
With that in mind, I like the value on a same game parlay of both teams to score and the over at -138.
