Brentford vs Newcastle Predictions
| Brentford Odds | +187 |
| Newcastle Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250o / +200u |
Newcastle will continue its battle for a spot in either the Europa League or Europa Conference League next season when it takes on Brentford.
It's been a really difficult season for Brentford, which last season achieved a top-half finish, but a wicked bad run of variance and injury luck hit them at the wrong time to be sitting 16th place going into the final day of the season. They are getting healthier and have been playing much better than their results indicate over the second half of the season, so they are definitely live to pull off an upset here at home.
Newcastle was beaten 3-2 by Manchester United on Wednesday, which dropped them into seventh place in the table and now in need of a win and for Chelsea to lose to get into a Europa League spot, barring Manchester United winning the FA Cup. Otherwise, they are likely looking at playing in the Europa Conference League next season. They have been on a good run recently in terms of their underlying metrics, but Brentford is an incredibly difficult team to beat, especially at home.
Brentford
Brentford has gone through a lot of bad luck this season. Coming into this final match, they have a +4.5 xGD, but have a -7 actual goal differential for the season.
Brentford is a really good defense, especially defending in its own penalty area. The Bees have allowed the eighth-fewest non-penalty expected goals, are fourth in final third to box entry conversion rate and have the second-best xG per set piece allowed mark in the Premier League, which are all great things when facing Newcastle.
What Brentford has to do in this match is keep Newcastle out of transition. The last five matches they've played out of a 4-3-3 because they were the ones being tasked with controlling a majority of the possession. But in this match, you will see them most likely switch back to their normal 3-5-2 with five at the back when they don't have the ball. If they play passively and force Newcastle to break them down from build-up situations, they are going to have a lot of success in this match.
Having their best three attackers up top is so massive for Brentford because there have only been a handful of instances when all three have been available at the same time. Toney is obviously important due to his finishing prowess, but their most important attacker this season has been Bryan Mbeumo. His pace and finishing ability in transition is so deadly and crucial to Brentford's style of play. This season he has a 0.68 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is a top-10 mark in the Premier League.
Newcastle
Newcastle's defending against Manchester United was terrible and it showed just how weak they are in two key areas. First, Newcastle has built its success in large part because of its ability to press opponents high, win the ball off of them and create easy transition breaks for big chances. Over the second half of the season they became a lot more aggressive in that press after a period of playing a 4-5-1 midblock that was not working.
The issue with playing that aggressively is you leave yourself vulnerable for balls in behind the high defensive line. With Newcastle having a lot of slow defenders on that back line, it's allowed them to get exposed far too many times against good transition teams. Their defensive numbers have improved in large part thanks to the opponents they've been facing; Sheffield United, Burnley, Brighton and Manchester United are nowhere near the level of Brentford in terms of being able to create big chances off transition opportunities. Not to mention, Newcastle is allowing the most counter attack shots in the Premier League.
Those four teams are also four of the worst set piece offenses in the Premier League, while Brentford is one of the best, creating the second-most expected goals behind only Everton on set pieces this season. Newcastle has been dreadful at defending them, allowing the sixth-highest xG per set piece this season.
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Brentford vs Newcastle
Prediction
Newcastle has one of the most drastic home/road splits in the Premier League. At St. James Park, they have a +21.4 xGD, but away from home, they are at -8.8. They really struggled to create chances against Brentford's low block in the previous meeting, as they were aided by a penalty but only created 0.6 xG from their other seven shots.
Brentford has gone through a period of historic under performance and was one of the teams through the middle of the season that dealt with the most injuries. Now they are mostly healthy and have all of their attackers, including Ivan Toney and Mbeumo, available; those two should cause a lot of problems to Newcastle's back line.
This line is inflated towards Newcastle because they have something to play for and Brentford doesn't, but Brentford is a really hard working team that rarely puts in a lackluster performance, so I like the value on the Bees Draw No Bet at +118.
Pick: Brentford Draw No Bet (+118 via FanDuel)
