Brighton vs Fulham Odds
| Brighton Odds | -182 |
| Fulham Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200/+150 |
Brighton look to get things back on track after a 2-1 loss to Manchester City when they host Fulham on the south coast.
The Seagulls rebounded from the loss to Manchester City by beating Ajax in the Europa League to get the club's first ever win in a European competition. Brighton's form in the Premier League has been up and down, as they are currently in seventh, but Brighton have played a pretty difficult schedule so far.
Fulham are comfortably sitting in 13th place and have distanced themselves from the relegation fight after a couple good results against teams in the bottom half of the table. The Cottagers are coming off a 2-0 loss to Tottenham where mistakes did them in trying to build out of the back against Tottenham's high press. They've struggled defensively against top tier competition, so this could turn into a rout.
Find my betting prediction, pick and preview for Brighton vs Fulham below.
Brighton
Brighton are having an interesting season in the fact that they are still putting up great underlying metrics offensively, but their defense has been getting a bit exposed in transition because of how aggressive they have been trying to attack the opponent's box.
Let's first talk a little bit about De Zerbi's tactics in the final third, because they are going to be used a lot in this match with Fulham playing a deep low block.
De Zerbi's build up shapes often change depending on the opponent, but typically it's a 4-2-4 build up with the fullbacks hugging the touchline to provide width. When they get in the final third those fullbacks tend to push forward to allow the wingers to invert towards the middle of the box or vice versa. Really what De Zerbi wants his team to accomplish when they are trying to break down a low block is the principal of overload to isolate. What I mean by that is he wants his midfielders and center forward to overload the middle of the pitch, so the defense is forced to stay compact, which in turn gets Karou Mitoma, Solly March, Simon Adingra, or Ansu Fati into 1 v 1 situations with the opposing fullback. Or at times, the winger will tuck inside to help overload the middle and try to play through that way.
Tottenham repeatedly kept inverting Udogie and Pedro Porro into the center of the pitch to aid the attack and try to create numerical advantages centrally to help break down Fulham's low block. De Zerbi does prefer to invert his wingers to make runs in the channel. They did this with great success against Ajax on Thursday in the Europa League.
Right place, right time. 😌
João Pedro finishes off Brighton’s incredible build-up play. 👏 pic.twitter.com/wsCxihga7J
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 26, 2023
With the plethora of attackers that Brighton have at the moment, they are such a dangerous team to play against, no matter how you decide to play out of possession. The Seagulls are second in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals and big scoring chances behind only Newcastle. In fact, their match against Manchester City on Saturday was the first time this season they've been held under 1 xG in a match. They put up 2.3 expected goals against Fulham in this fixture last season and should be able to do the same this time around.
Fulham
Fulham played a very compact 4-4-2 out of possession against Tottenham on Monday, conceding the space in wide areas to make sure that Spurs couldn’t play through the middle of the pitch. For large stretches of the match it was working, but the problem with Fulham is they aren't 100% clear on whether they are going to play everything long or try to build out of the back. Both of Tottenham’s goals came off of high turnovers, as Fulham’s center backs were incredibly sloppy.
If there is a team that can completely punish you if you are sloppy in build up play, it’s Brighton. The Seagulls are incredibly aggressive with their man to man high press and currently sit second in PPDA.
Fulham going forward in attack aren't really that threatening given their striker situation. Raul Jimenez wasn't giving Fulham any type of production, so now Carlos Vinicus is their main striker up top. The problem with him is he's getting no shot production either, as he's only averaging 1.96 shots per 90 minutes. It's a problem that Fulham haven't been able to fix since Aleksander Mitrovic left the club. He was so important to their style of play, which was to get the ball out wide and swing in crosses to him, because he is one of the best aerial threats in the world.
Without him, Fulham are left in the conundrum of they're not a good enough build up team, they don't have attackers that can threaten you consistently in transition and now they don't have an elite aerial threat in the box. So, the effect of that is Fulham are only averaging 1.08 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 16th in the Premier League.
The defense over performed like crazy last season, but this year they are starting to see some of that regression. Good attacking sides have consistently broke down Fulham's compact low block, as they're conceding 1.64 npxG per 90 minutes and have allowed the most big scoring chances in the Premier League.
Brighton vs Fulham
Prediction
This is honestly a perfect tactical match for Brighton.
Fulham have consistently conceded a high number of chances against good competition, which is why they have conceded the most big scoring chances in the Premier League. De Zerbi's tactics are continually evolving and are elite at manipulating low blocks to find pockets of space and there is truly no better team outside the Big Six at making quick passes in tight spaces to create a chance.
Brighton under De Zerbi have been destroying teams in the bottom half of the table ever since he arrived, as Brighton have a +19.3 xGD in 24 matches. They beat Fulham on xG 3.6 to 0.9 last season, but somehow lost both matches, so I think they will get some revenge and a result they deserve at home.
I have Brighton's spread projected at -1.59, so I like the value on their spread of -1 at -112 over at BetRivers.
