Burnley vs Man United Odds
| Burnley Odds | +320 |
| Man United Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +125 |
Man United look to get out of their poor run of form when they travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley.
Burnley got their first point of the season at Nottingham Forest on Monday after losing their opening three matches. Vincent Kompany's style of play has not translated to the Premier League, especially against top sides. It's one of the youngest teams in the Premier League, so it may take some time for Burnley to find the form they had in the Championship last season.
Manchester United are in crisis mode right now. The Red Devils have three straight matches coming against Arsenal, Brighton and Bayern Munich. Erik Ten Haag is dealing with a lot of injuries and personnel issues that have set United back quite a bit. This is a perfect get right spot for them, but it won't be easy on the road, where they have been poor for a long time now.
Here's how I'm evaluating Burnley vs Man United.
Burnley
Burnley’s high pressing style just flat out isn’t working. They didn’t really get a chance to press Nottingham Forest high because Forest sends 85% of their goal kicks went long, but they were pressing with a front four against both Aston Villa and Tottenham. That is incredibly aggressive and may have worked in the Championship, but against good build up teams they don’t have the personnel to have it work effectively, which is why they’ve conceded 7.4 xG in four matches.
If they try and do that against Manchester United, the match is going to become very chaotic.
Kompany does favor a possession build out of the back style and has tried it against one good high pressing team: Tottenham. The result was countless turnovers in their own end, leading to a number of shots for Tottenham. They had numerous chances against Forest and even had a goal VAR's off by fraction. Against Tottenham they did score the first goal and they created a big scoring chance.
The other thing with Burnley is once they fall behind, things tend to get worse and worse. They've played from behind for 228 minutes already this season and are conceding 1.90 xG per 90 minutes because they become too aggressive with their press.
Man United
Right now United have serious problems that could end up getting Ten Haag sacked.
What it really boils down to is Ten Haag is stuck between two different tactics. United signed Andre Onana because they want to be a build out of the back possession dominant team like his Ajax teams were. Then he came out and said a few weeks ago that he "wants to turn Manchester United into the best transitional team in the world".
The problem is to be the "best transitional team in the world" you must be a good pressing team, which Manchester United are not at this current juncture. Even going back to the Ralph Ragnick days, Manchester United have never had a PPDA below 10, which is what you need to be to be considered an elite press. They've forced a bunch of high turnovers, but the problem since they aren't effective enough with their press once teams beat that first line of the press, Casemiro is the only defender standing there trying to defend multiple guys in transition.
To their credit, Manchester United have looked dangerous in transition opportunities. They are primarily playing out of the back with Onana and trying to beat the first line of the press and attack the opposing backline with pace. The addition of Rasmus Hojlund to go along with Marcus Rashford on the left does make United dangerous, especially against a high pressing team like Burnley.
The other problem for Manchester United is they've run out gas too quickly. They'll look great with their pressing for the first 20 minutes, but then it falls off a cliff. Looking at the chart below from understat, Manchester United have conceded 47% of their expected goals in the 76th minute or later.
image via understat
Burnley vs Manchester United
Pick & Prediction
If both teams continue to press like they have been, this is going to be an incredibly open match with numerous transitional moments for both sides.
While both teams have forced high turnovers, neither have really been effective with their press, which is why you've seen both defenses leak goals. United are also going to potentially be without three of their usual four starters across their backline like they have been for the past few matches when they've been ripped apart.
Once that first goal goes in, both teams are going to become uber-aggressive trying to get back in the game, which will open things up for the team that is ahead.
So, I like the value on the over.
